Jack Milner: Stephen Moffatt trained Rio’s Winter should prove too classy for her five competitors in Race 6, a Progress Plate for fillies and mares over 1400m up the Vaal straight on Tuesday.
After the daughter of Oratorio finished a 0.75-length second behind Summer Pudding in last year’s Wilgerbosdrift Gauteng Fillies Guineas over 1600m at Turffontein, she got a massive penalty from the handicapper.
In every respect, it was deserved. She was overtly fancied to run a big race and was widely tipped by many a scribe to win it. It was only close home that Summer Pudding managed to get the upper hand to win by a neck, so there can be no complaints about the merit rating rise from 96 to 113.
She did go on to finish fourth behind Summer Pudding in the Grade 1 Wilgerbosdrift SA Fillies Classic, but she seemed to find 1800m a touch too far.
Now, in keeping with her current form, Rio’s Winter has come down to a merit rating of 106, despite having won her third career race two runs back.
In spite of that, she still comes into Tuesday’s Vaal race as the best handicapped runner by at least 2.5kg. Moffatt’s runner has been contesting far stronger fields and she will enjoy the move back to 1400m.
She also renews her relationship with jockey Gavin Lerena who has ridden her three times for a win and two seconds.
Many of the races comprise a few runners who stand out from the rest and although there are some fillies and mares who could trouble Rio’s Winter, she does appear to be the best banker on an interesting card.
One of the more intriguing events on the eight-race card comes up in Race 2, a Progress Plate over 1800m. This is one of those races where the best handicapped runner does not match the form.
On paper, Ballet Shoes has a massive handicap advantage over the opposition. Based on merit ratings she is 6kg better off with Tree Tumbo and has 9.5kg edge on Nartjie. However, the last time they met she was beaten three length by Sean Tarry’s charge, and they meet at the same weight differential.
Even given the fact Ballet Shoes needed that run as she was returning from a five-month break, she still has a bit to find on Tree Tumbo – but it will be much closer this time.
As usual, Lyle Hewitson rides Tree Tumbo while S’manga Khumalo will be aboard Candice Dawson’s charge this time.
Mike de Kock could throw a spanner into the works as he saddles Nartjie, who is an improving three-year-old. He did run a very good second to Second Base last time but he does have his work cut out to win under these conditions.
Callan Murray takes the ride.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 1 Arctic Skyline, 5 On Cue, 8 Voltron, 3 Coming In Hot
Race 2: 1 Tree Tumbo, 6 Ballet Shoes, 4 Nartjie, 2 Duke Of Spin