Dubai World Cup – race-by-race analysis
Ed Marnane
Read moreThis weekend is packed with top-class racing action and lucrative betting opportunities. The highlight is Saturday’s Classic Day at Turffontein, where a R1-million Pick 6 carryover could see the pool soar to R5 million. The 10-race card is loaded with feature events including three Grade 1 showdowns. And later in the afternoon comes Meydan’s Super Saturday, the traditional curtain-raiser for the Dubai World Cup with seven Group races and two Listed contests. Sunday action includes another mega-rich feature at Sha Tin in Hong Kong and a catch-up meeting at Hollywoodbets Scottsville. This is a weekend of racing you simply can’t afford to miss!
Splicethemainbrace stands head and shoulders above her rivals in Race 6, the Listed Breeders Guineas. She boasts a level of form and a rating that make her impossible to oppose. Splicethemainbrace has repeatedly stamped her authority against stronger opposition and boasts eight wins from 10 starts. She looks poised to dominate once again.
Tajdif makes a quick reappearance in Race 6, just six days after finishing a respectable fourth behind Tawalla, who is one of the most improved horses in training in the UAE. Tajdif won’t have to improve too much in a modest handicap to finally open his account at the 13th time of asking and has a capable partner in jockey Oscar Chavez.
Trainer Wayne Lim’s in-form galloper No More Delay was outpaced late in his previous start but should bounce back to winning form in Race 8 over 1200m at Kuala Lumpur. Since making his local debut in October last year, the six-year-old has progressed rapidly through the grades with three wins and three places from six starts. He drops in class and looks hard to beat. Race 1 is at 06:30.
Classic Day at the city track is one of the biggest meetings on the year with three Grade 1 contests and four other feature races, including the second legs of the TAB SA Triple Crown and the Wilgerbosdrift SA Triple Tiara. The most popular bet of the day will be the Pick 6, which kicks off with a R1-million carryover and could total some R5 million. Below are brief previews of the six races.
Leg 1: Race 4 - 1160m TAB MIDDLE STAKES: Johan Janse van Vuuren’s three-year-old Cymric seems talented enough at this stage of his career to see off a few well-exposed older runners among whom Silver Tudor is the best performed over this distance and poses the biggest threat. Best of the others are Gavin Lerena’s back-to-form mount Rollwiththepunches and Barend Botes’ recent acquisition Night Bomber.
Leg 2: Race 5 - 1600m WILGERBOSDRIFT ACACIA STAKES (Listed): Lightly-raced Minogue makes most appeal after getting within 0.50 lengths of Mercantour in a preparatory sprint last time. Candice Dawson’s booking of Richard Fourie suggests stable confidence. Her main danger is Let’s Go Now, consistently well-performed at Graded level and the best-weighted runner in the race. Francine fared well against top males in her only previous try at this distance and can improve. Stablemate Gimmefabulous is perhaps a few merit-rating points ahead of the handicappers and warrants consideration off a low weight, while bottom-weight Tried And True ran is the lurker in the pack.
Leg 3: Race 6 - 1800m WILGERBOSDRIFT SA FILLIES CLASSIC (Grade 1): Spumante Dolce made it three from three when keeping going to beat VJ’s Angel and Quid Pro Quo in the Gauteng Fillies Guineas. Fiery Pegasus, World Of Alice and Bakwena were further back. VJ’s Angel was running hard at Spumante Dolce near the line, but Mike de Kock believes his filly will be better over 1800m and she should confirm the form. Olivia’s Way and Willy Meet Again are best of the others.
Leg 4: Race 7 - 1800m TAB SA CLASSIC (Grade 1): Parisian Walkway capitalised on stablemate Fire Attack’s scratching from the Gauteng Guineas to secure a decisive victory over talented Greaterix. Before that, however, Fire Attack was widely considered the stronger of the two, making for an intriguing showdown in this contest. Both command serious respect. There are a few promising runners untried at this level, notably classy Legend Of Arthur who is a half-brother to a Derby winner and likely to enjoy the extra ground.
Leg 5: Race 8 - 1600m WILGERBOSDRIFT H F OPPENHEIMER HORSE CHESTNUT STAKES (Grade 1): Brilliant and versatile Main Defender, unbeaten over the course and distance, is undoubtedly the horse to beat. He’s enjoyed an excellent prep and holds Barbaresco, Texas Red and White Pearl on their most recent encounter. While he has not won over 1600m, Lucky Lad is a champion in his own right. He loves the city track and could come into his own over this distance. On what we’ve seen three-year-old Greaterix may be best up to 1400m, but he’s talented and comes into the picture.
Leg 6: Race 9 - 1000m TAB J J THE JET PLANE STAKES (Grade 3): High-class filly Golden Sickle will be a popular choice following the scratching of Dyce. But there are many speedy, hard knockers with claims in this contest, including smart Chocolate Soldier and highly-regarded Karate Kid, who are bang in the race on collateral form through Golden Sickle. Winds Of Change is progressive and headed for feature wins and William Robertson is a tenacious stalwart. He hasn’t won over 1000m, but will fight it out if he gets anywhere near the early pace.
SUGGESTED (R252 for 20%) PICK 6 PERM (Leg 1 Race 4 @13:50):
Leg 1: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 10
Leg 2: 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 15
Leg 3: 1
Leg 4: 1, 3, 4
Leg 5: 1, 3
Leg 6: 2, 4, 6, 9, 13
Willie and Patrick Mullins have their first runner at Kelso in Scotland on Saturday, when they team up with Chart Topper in Race 4, the Grade 2 bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle over 3600m. The progressive six-year-old has won both his starts over hurdles by a combined winning margin of 29 lengths. He is lightly raced and should take home the bulk of the spoils.
Trainer Charlie Appleby, operating at a remarkable 29.8% strike-rate at Meydan this season, saddles seven runners in four of the nine races at this Super Saturday meeting, the dress rehearsal for the Dubai World Cup on 5 April. His best could be Mountain Breeze in Race 2, the Jumeirah Guineas over 1600m on turf. She recently ran out a resounding winner of the Mawj Stakes on her Meydan debut. First Conquest, unbeaten at Meydan, looks the one to follow in Race 5, the Group 2 Singspiel Stakes over 1800m on turf. Hallasan, recent winner of the Jumeirah Guineas Trial, could end the meeting on a high note for Appleby and James Doyle in Race 9, the Jumeirah 2000 Guineas over 1600m on turf.
Packing Angel keeps rising to the occasion and the connections of this New Zealand-bred gelding will be looking for another big run in Race 7, the Hong Kong Classic Cup over 1800m. He has three impressive wins to his name over 1400m and his breeding suggests he will relish the extra ground. Former Hong Kong champion jockey Joao Moreira has flown in from his base in Brazil to replace the injured Zac Purton on Packing Angel. The meeting starts at 07:00
Trainer Louis Goosen has a strong hand with four runners in Race 8, the afternoon’s feature sprint. Donquerari is the highest rated, has a favourable low draw and his apprentice rider Marx-Jacobson claims 4kg. He drops in class following a fair run to William Robertson in the Marula Sprint. Goosen will be hoping that his well-performed War Empress, Ibhele and Smorgasbord can also finish in the money and probably has most to fear from Gareth van Zyl’s three-year-old Luhamba Phambili and Duncan Howells’ Twenty One May.