Sha Tin race-by-race analysis

Luke Middlebrook

Sunday 5 June 2022

Race 1:

Boys Party had a very good last run after no luck in the early stages. General Trump was good when storming home for a nice second last start and he is the next-best winning chance under Moreira. The Multiplier drops in class here and finds a suitable race. It could be worth starting to follow. Dashing Genius is down in class here and can surprise after trialling well on the surface recently. Steel Win drops down in grade and from barrier 1 he can map well to give this a shake.

Race 2:

Winwin Thirtythree is drawn well here for the first time in two starts and should be in the finish back in trip and with Moreira taking the ride. Royal Agility was caught wide last start and still ran well into second place. He can win in the grade soon. Brave Power is a last start winner who remains in the same grade, drawn wider here and may need more luck. Dragon Baby was ridden forward last start, which didn’t work out, but he can improve with a quieter steer. Chiu Chow Brother is down in class here and can surprise. On prior Class 4 runs, he’s right in this.

Race 3:

Plikclone showed no interest last start, but it's best to forget the run and go on prior good form. He gets blinkers back on, a nice low draw and should be mapping a winning chance. Tuchel caught the eye last start when running home well. Rainbow Light looks a solid chance based on his last start and he should be at peak fitness fifth-up now. August Moon's form is good and must be rated a solid chance. Ezra is down in class in this race and should perform better, he should map well from gate 3 and can improve.

Race 4:

Happy Day had excuses last start when hampered late in the straight - consider again. Gang Of Brothers is having his first try at this distance and appears well suited. He remains a maiden, but Purton gets back on him and recent runs suggest a win is nearby. Kung Fu Tea should be highly suited by the drop back in distance after a fading late over 1600m last time. Brave Dreams is racing well with excellent sectional time rankings, and should be on the verge of a win. Woodfire Bro had genuine excuses last start and is worth considering again.

Race 5:

E Brother was caught wide last start and still ran well into third place. He comes into barrier 2, Moreira remains on board and they look a strong winning chance but in a race that does boast many good chances. Prosperous Win turned in a very nice debut run and looks to have good ability, with some luck from gate 10, he can go close to winning. The Best Hero can improve second-up from a break after appearing to need the run first-up. Super Class showed improvement at a recent trial. Wisdom Patch is a last start winner who remains in the same grade, and has a chance again.

Race 6: Nicholson Returns scored a big win last start and it will pay to keep following. From barrier 3, he should adopt the same tactics as last time and prove hard to run down. Cheery is more than capable of winning again in this race if he gains a good run from barrier 11 and with ample speed in the race. Beauty Spirit showed good speed to lead last start and gave a good sight, he can do the same here and figure in the finish. President’s Choice had excuses last start (blood in the trachea), so forget the run. Free Foal must rate a chance here.

Race 7:

Reve Parisien has shown consistent form lately, after winning well two starts ago and backing it up with a solid second place last start, and can score here in race with many chances. Adios turned in a very nice debut run and looks to have good ability; he can map well from barrier 2 and be a winning chance. Super Fortune is a last start winner who remains in the same grade, he will likely press forward from out wide and give a sight. Red Titan gave a good performance when storming home for third place last start, suggesting a first Hong Kong win is nearby. Victory Scholars is well placed at the weights and can be in the finish.

Race 8: Carroll Street is a talented sprinter who trialled well recently and he should take holding out here. Atomic Force's last run was better than it reads so do not dismiss, he should be a big improver third-up in Hong Kong here with Moreira taking the ride. Run Run Cool was given every chance last start but still ran a good race and he should map well here from gate 12. Metro Warrior performed well when returning to form last start and he’s an honest course/distance performer. Alcari faded late last start, chance to improve under right race shape second-up.

Race 9:

Golden Empire was not disgraced last start when beaten by a very smart horse and he looks ready to take to the 1600m and can bounce back to his winning ways. Looking Cool is a last start winner who retains good form and can run well again as he steps away from a nice, low draw in gate 3. Sight Spirit is resuming from a break and trialled well recently, from barrier 1 he will map to get all the favours. Secret Vision turned in a nice effort last run when finishing strongly into third. He can go on with it. Leading Fortune looks a chance if you go on previous consistent form.

Race 10:

Navas Two is a talented galloper who is resuming from a break and he finally draws a low gate for the first time in three starts. He should be taking a power of beating. Lucky With You is a nice four-year-old with a good chance here at his second try over 1400m. The Golden Scenery gave a good performance when storming home for a nice second last start, but he will need some luck from gate 12. Lucky Sweynesse is a nice three-year-old who could have plenty of ore upside but is an unknown at the course/distance. Master Delight is resuming from a break and not tested in recent trial.

Luke Middlebrook’s Selections:
Race 1: 6-8-5-1
Race 2: 13-1-3-4
Race 3: 11-6-3-2
Race 4: 1-8-9-10
Race 5: 10-3-5-7
Race 6: 4-2-3-9
Race 7: 3-8-1-5
Race 8: 1-2-8-7
Race 9: 4-9-1-12
Race 10: 10-2-3-12