Rating drop could end the tears

Jack Milner

Can Paton’s Tears finally end a frustrating winless run of 875 days and pay a fourth visit to the No 1 box at the Vaal on Thursday?

This daughter of Coup De Grace looked likely to at least pick up a small feature after her first eight runs yielded a return of three wins and two places. However, after that the drought set in and 30 runs later, despite some close-up places in decent company, one has to go back to April 2021 to find her last victory.

The problem facing this Lucky Houdalakis-trained mare is she has rarely finished too far off the winner and as a result her merit rating has stayed fairly constant and for over a year has floated between 85 and 83.

That changed slightly last time out where she came in for some betting support but finally finished an unplaced seventh, 3.50 lengths behind Opera Glass over 1800m at the Vaal. That has resulted in a three-point drop by the handicapper and the six-year-old goes into Race 7 at the Vaal today, a MR 90 Handicap for fillies and mares over 2000m, with a merit rating of 80, her lowest since she started racing.

The one concern might be the distance, but she has raced twice over 2000m for a second and third place and it will be left to S’manga Khumalo to “bring home the bacon”.

He has ridden her three times and has a decent enough record including a short-head second place behind What A Honey in September last year.

She will once again come up against two of the runners who beat her last time, Opera Glass and Apache Fighter, but on 3.5kg and 3kg better terms respectively. Apache Fighter was touched off by Opera Glass in that race, so on the weight turnaround it should be close between the three.

Somehow one has to believe Paton’s Tears ran below her best last time and there is more to come from her on this occasion.

She has developed a habit of jumping slowly so Khumalo will have to ensure she does not give away too much ground coming out of the stalls.

Apache Fighter stands out as the main danger. Her close-up second to Opera Glass was her first run since finishing unplaced in the Grade 3 Gold Bowl over 3200m in May. She was allowed to drift to 10-1 for her comeback run so clearly ran above expectations.

She does seem to be better over 2400m but has placed in both of her starts over 2000m. She will meet Opera Glass on 0.5kg better terms and the combination of trainer Roy Magner and jockey Muzi Yeni has been deadly this season adds to her advantage.

Opera Glass is in good form and displayed courage in her last win when holding off the challenge of Apache Fighter, and with Gavin Lerena up must be a contender.

The other runner to consider is Paul Matchett-trained Pretty In Pearls who although out at the weights, is currently in good form and has a decent record over the distance.

Jack Milner’s selections

Race 1: 7 Guardia Regine, 6 Crepuscolo, 8 Nkandla Gold, 3 Breath Of Magic

Race 2: 2 Kinshin Sha, 3 Pocket Watch, 1 To The King, 5 Circle Of Grace

Race 3: 5 Blup Blup, 2 Striking Angel, 9 Jumping Analia, 10 Life Lesson

Race 4: 2 Duke Of Rock, 1 Trip To States, 5 Eiger Sanction, 3 Bregardt

Race 5: 1 The Work Of Life, 4 Villa Semaya, 2 United We Stand, 6 Angel Of My Heart

Race 6: 3 Eiffel Tower, 1 Godfather, 2 Diesel's Shadow, 6 Count Your Chances

Race 7: 3 Paton's Tears, 2 Apache Fighter, 1 Opera Glass, 6 Pretty In Pearls

Race 8: 4 Coromandel, 5 Tree Fairy, 7 Ideal Future, 1 Top Man

BEST BET

Race 5 No 1 The Work Of Life            

VALUE BET

Race 7 No 3 Paton’s Tears

BEST SWINGER

Race 2 2x3

BIPOT

R216

Leg 1: 6, 7, 8

Leg 2: 2, 3

Leg 3: 2, 5, 9, 10

Leg 4: 1, 2, 5

Leg 5: 1

Leg 6: 1, 2, 3

PLACE ACCUMULATOR

R324

Leg 1: 2, 3

Leg 2: 2, 5, 9

Leg 3: 1, 2, 5

Leg 4: 1

Leg 5: 1, 2, 3

Leg 6: 2, 3

Leg 7: 4, 5, 7

PICK 6

R1280

Leg 1: 2, 4, 5, 9, 10

Leg 2: 1, 2, 3, 5

Leg 3: 1

Leg 4: 1, 2, 3, 6

Leg 5: 1, 2, 3, 6

Leg 6: 1, 4, 5, 7

JACKPOT 1

R64

Leg 1: 1, 2, 3, 5

Leg 2: 1

Leg 3: 1, 2, 3, 6

Leg 4: 1, 2, 3, 6

JACKPOT 2

R64

Leg 1: 1

Leg 2: 1, 2, 3, 6

Leg 3: 1, 2, 3, 6

Leg 4: 1, 4, 5, 7