‘Old Man’ could show youngsters a July trick

Danie Toerien

Statistically speaking, it’s very difficult for older horses to win the July.
Since 2000, all the winners of the July have been either three or four-year-olds, with the exception of El Picha (2000, trained by Geoff Woodruff) and Pocket Power (2008, trained by Mike Bass) who both won the race as five-year-olds.
This year, double July winner Do It Again will attempt to complete a treble at the age of seven, while Belgarion, another former July winner, is having another crack at the age of six. The only other “older” horse in the field is Paul Peter’s Astrix, who makes his July debut at the age of five.
With the Hollywoodbets Durban July just days away, 4Racing spoke to Mike and Carol Bass about the chances of the older horses and how they see the race unfolding.
“I’m not sure who will win it this year, but I know it’s very difficult for an older horse to win it because of the weights,” said Mike.
“Generally speaking, the younger horses carry a lighter weight, which gives them that competitive advantage.”
This year, however, is no ordinary year, with the two top-weighted horses both four-year-olds – defending champion Kommetdieding and double Queen’s Plate winner Jet Dark – who will shoulder 60kg.
“Do It Again does have a realistic chance. At the age of seven Justin Snaith looks to have him back to his best. I think. He must have a shot to get a third win,” said Mike.
Added Carol: “The pace of the race will be crucial. And in his favour is the fact he won’t be carrying 60kg. He’s definitely in with a shout. But if there’s no pace, it’s not going to suit Do It Again.”
As for Belgarion: “I don’t think Belgarion will do it again, pardon the pun. He was so well-weighted when he won the July, but this time, not sure,” said Mike.
“Of the old men, Do It Again, is the one to beat.”
The old men, however, face an armada of youngsters ready to take the title.
“This year is one of the most difficult to find the winner because there are just so many horses that can make it,” reckons Mike.
Carol is a touch more committed: “Jet Dark, if he stays, has a huge chance,” she said. “He looks the best of the four-year-olds. The short run-in will be perfect for him if he goes the distance. It’s his trademark. He did win the Champions Cup over 1800m.
“Hoedspruit does have a chance, especially with his draw and weight. It’s what people are talking about.
“Linebacker also has a big chance. And Brett Crawford’s Zapatillas. He fancies it strongly.”
The Bass couple, however, agree that on paper, the runner to beat is Mike de Kock’s Safe Passage.
“I like Safe Passage. I think he’s going to run be a big runner,” said Carol.
And Mike agrees: “I like Mike de Kock’s Safe Passage. But it’s very open.”