Jack Milner: Follow a winning horse until it gets beaten.
There is a tendency among punters to think that if a horse has won a couple of races successively, he is likely to lose his next start.
But according to many pundits and statisticians, that view is the wrong way around. One should follow a horse as long as it is winning, and then stop once it loses.
So, on that basis one has to keep with Marmara Sea when he runs in Race 7 at Fairview today, the November Stakes (Non-Black Type) over 1400m on the Polytrack.
Marmara Sea has been a revelation since joining trainer Alan Greeff and introduced to the Polytrack and his unbeaten winning streak of six in a row since arriving in Port Elizabeth is on track to be extended.
His wins have seen him move from a merit rating of 71 to his current figure of 100 and he comes into this particular event as the best-weighted column.
The Soft Falling Rain gelding actually produced his most impressive win in his last start when storming clear to beat Beethoven by 3.25 lengths
This is a step-up in class for Marmara Sea but his rider, Greg Cheyne, has already won on him four times so he knows how to get the best out of the four-year-old gelding.
Trainer Harold Crawford does not raid other centres often, so we need to keep an eye on Spectra Force. This six-year-old gelding does not always show his best side, but it is worth noting his last win was over this distance.
He is unknown on the Polytrack but he will be ridden by Lyle Hewitson and jumps from No 1 draw.