Danie Toerien
One would think that with five of the 18 runners in this year’s renewal of the Hollywoodbets Durban July coming from the stables of Snaith Racing, brothers Justin and Jonathan would be oozing with confidence.
But, seeing that it is the July, there’s no guarantee that they will be in the winner’s enclosure at Greyville shortly after 16:00 on Saturday after the 126th running of Africa’s greatest race.
That’s the word from Jonathan, who describes this year’s race as “one of the hardest Julys in years to pick a winner”.
“You can make a case for ten horses, mostly because of the weights,” said Jonathan this week.
“From a punter’s perspective, it’s going to be very tricky for them and in the Pick 6 they have to go wide.
“The good news for punters is that a race this open will offer value. There’s no even-money shot here.
“Look at Do It Again. He has an amazing record in this race and he’s had a great prep. At 14 or 15-1, that’s unreal value.”
A double July-winner at the age of three and four, the veteran will be looking to add a third title at the age of seven this year, and Jonathan is very optimistic that the “old man”, ridden by Aldo Domeyer, can do it again.
“I really do fancy Do It Again’s chances this year. Very much so. He is at his best. He showed it last time out,” he said.
“He’s also come on from that run. He’s a horse that just keeps on getting better with age and he is in a great space at the moment.
“The closer we get to the race, the better his chances seem to be. He’s just getting better and better.
“He’s a runner that everyone has to consider. If you’re looking for a Quartet horses, it’s Do It Again.”
According to Jonathan, the Snaith yard considers Linebacker, trained by Vaughan Marshall, biggest threat.
“If we look at the field and pick one horse that we would be nervous about, it would be Linebacker.”
The other four Snaith runners are not there just to fill the field, assured Jonathan.
“If you look at Hoedspruit’s Met Run, and the weight compared to what Kommetdieding was carrying, the turnaround of 6,5kg is massive for the margin. At the weights he’s got an outstanding chance.
“He’s an interesting horse because although he may not be a Group 1 weight for age runner, he’s probably the best weighted horse in the race.
“Based on his Met run, it’s hard to ignore him. He’s not a horse you can leave out of the Pick 6. He’s also got a very favourable draw. He’s the kind of horse that races handy and I think he will ride into contention. He needed his last run.”
Hoedspruit will have Craig Zackey in the saddle.
“Justin hasn’t had as much opportunity to run him because his real advantage here is the weight.
“Had we run him in a couple of more races, he would have incurred more penalties and he wouldn’t have had the chance we think he has now.
“The goal was to keep him at 53,5kg and I think off that weight he has a very honest chance. He will give a very account of himself. I can assure you he won’t run badly.
“The draw, the weight, the jockey, it’s a great combo. He cannot be ignored.
“It is also Suzette’s first runner in the July and to have a horse of this calibre in her first ever attempts at the July is wonderful for her. She puts so much into the game.
“It’s been her ultimate dream to have a runner in the July.”
The one question on everybody’s lips is if Jet Dark can stay the 2200m.
“That’s a good question,” said Jonathan, but does he need to see out the 2200? Will there be pace in the race?
“When the pace is slow – and there doesn’t seem to be much pace other than Astrix - it brings him right into contention. I don’t believe there will be much pace and that will suit him.
“Taking that into account, I think he will see out the trip. He is a master of coming off the pace and he’s got as helluva turn of foot.
“One thing you’d have noticed from his run in the Met, over 2000m he was the fastest finishing horse in the race.
“Also, Bernard Fayd’Herb is a dangerous in this race. He’s the guy you want in a Group 1 race. He’s a big-race rider and he rides to the occasion. He’s proven it time and time again.
“Under ten lengths turning for home Jet Dark will be dangerous.
“The draw (9) is ideal for him now. Bernard knows how to win this race. He’s won it with Marinaresco carrying 60kg.”
Belgarion, also a fomer July winner from the Snaith yard, was not in action at the July Gallops last week, with Justin opting to give him a run at Summerveld last Saturday.
“Belgarion’s preparation was a bit different. He came in from Cape Town late. Justin didn’t want to bring him up early because the tracks in KwaZulu-Natal are a touch harder. He wanted to give him a soft entry.
“He will be having his third run after rest in the July. His last run over 1500m was far too short for him, but it was eye-catching.
“He’s got Piere Strydom up.
“If he wins the race? Will I be shocked? Definitely not. He’s a class horse He’s come right at the right time.
“Imagine the dream result of Piere Strydom winning the July again.”
And then there’s Pomp And Power, winner of the Cape Derby over 2000m.
“Pomp And Power has given Justin a few grey hairs.
“He has not been an easy horse to train, but it seems that Justin has managed to get the best out of him.
“There’s a lot of speculation that he might be the pacemaker, but I can assure you that is absolutely not the case.
“He will be covered in the early part of the race and put to sleep. That is the specific instruction to Richard Fourie. That’s the game plan, and we have done a lot of work in this regard. We do believe he will settle.
“You should see a different horse come the big day. He is extremely well.
“Coming into the July as the Cape Derby winner carrying a light weight, he will have a big chance. It’s a huge advantage.”
One thing is certain, this year’s July promises to be cracker.
“Normally you don’t find the highest rated horses in the country running in the July because it’s a Handicap. This is the first year in a long time that all the best weight for age horse – like Linebacker, Kommetdieding, Jet Dark – are all running in the July. It’s very seldom this happens.
“The three-year-olds will have to up their game to beat them all.
“Beating one is hard, beating them all is a tough ask. When the get into their stride, the youngsters will have a hard time beating them all,” concluded Jonathan.