Horse-by-horse guide to the Caulfield Cup

The $5-million Group 1 Carlton Draught Caulfield Cup over 2400m is set to be contested at 08:15 SA time on Saturday 21 October in Melbourne, Australia.

Here is a horse-by-horse analysis of the contestants as provided by Sports Information Services.

GOLD TRIP

Why he can win: Might be going as well as he ever has in Australia as evidenced by his dominant last start Turnbull Stakes victory beating several key rivals. In the last 15 years Viewed, Admire Rakti, Dunaden and Best Solution have all carried 57kg+ to win the race and it took Verry Elleegant to stop Anthony Van Dyke adding to that list.

Why he can’t win: He meets several of his main rivals worse at the weights under the handicap conditions and was beaten in this race 12 months ago with less weight on his back against an inferior field.

WITHOUT A FIGHT

Why he can win: Hit the line in the fastest last 200m of the race in the Underwood Stakes first up and is ideally suited rising in distance. Finally draws a barrier to allow him to settle closer and gets firm ground to suit.

Why he can’t win: Meets Soulcombe slightly worse at the weights for finishing behind him in the Underwood.

BREAKUP

Why he can win: Has contested elite races in his last two starts in Japan and looks suited in what is basically a drop in class. He has Damian Lane in the saddle and maps for the run of the race.

Why he can’t win: His very best form is arguably over further and he might be better suited in the Melbourne Cup.

MONTEFILIA

Why she can win: Showed a big turn of foot to win the Hill Stakes last start and was arguably unlucky not to win this race 12 months ago. If the race is slowly run, she has one of the better last 600m finishes in the race.

Why she can’t win: There looks good speed on paper and she historically doesn’t perform as well off fast speeds as she does in slowly run races like last year’s Caulfield Cup and the Hill Stakes last start.

FRANCESCO GUARDI

Why he can win: He didn’t find his best form last preparation until he stepped up to 2400m+. Gets to that distance range for the first time this preparation.

Why he can’t win: There were better runs in the Turnbull Stakes and he might end up a long way back from the wide barrier.

WEST WIND BLOWS

Why he can win: Huge run in the Turnbull Stakes after working early on a fast speed to still be one of the strongest late and his work through the line suggests he’ll appreciate 2400m. Drops in weight and can race on the speed.

Why he can’t win: Doesn’t seem to have a lot of gate speed by Australian standards and if he is crossed early he could be shuffled back into a position that doesn’t allow him to roll on the speed like he prefers.

NONCONFORMIST

Why he can win: Has run well in the race previously despite racing wide without cover and this has been his target this preparation.

Why he can’t win: He’s on the quick back up out of a very fast race where he went between 15 to 19L quicker to the 600m mark than what he has in the previous two years which could leave him very flat. The barrier doesn’t help with a soft run either.

SOULCOMBE

Why he can win: Only Gold Trip was stronger late in the Turnbull, he beat Without A Fight in the Underwood and he looks ideally suited rising in distance and dropping in weight. Meets Gold Trip 3kg better off at the weights.

Why he can’t win: Has a bad habit of missing the start and could end up back near last and buried needing plenty of luck.

DUKE DE SESSA

Why he can win: He ran an improved race rising in distance in the Turnbull and might have further improvement to come third up rising in distance.

Why he can’t win: A potentially firmer surface is likely against him and he needs to improve to turn the tables on a few of his Turnbull Stakes rivals.

HOO YA MAL

Why he can win: He drops 6kg under the handicap conditions of the race, can roll forward and looks suited rising in distance.

Why he can’t win: This is a stronger race and he’ll likely need to produce a clear new peak performance on what he’s shown in Australia to date.

RIGHT YOU ARE

Why he can win: Firm ground suits, he drops in weight and he has been targeted at this race since he won the Mornington Cup in April.

Why he can’t win: This is his toughest test and his form doesn’t look strong enough.

EMISSARY

Why he can win: Runner-up behind Gold Trip in last year’s Melbourne Cup at his best and drops in weight to 52kg.

Why he can’t win: He was beaten a long way in the Turnbull Stakes last start and the Melbourne Cup run aside, his form isn’t strong enough.

GOLDMAN

Why he can win: Drops 7kg in weight off his last start and might be a horse that needs to roll at a fast speed to perform at his best. At his best he was a dominant winner over Soulcombe in the Roy Higgins last preparation.

Why he can’t win: Was beaten a long way in a weaker race last start and doesn’t look to be going as well this preparation.

OKITA SOUSHI

Why he can win: He drops 9.5kg on his last start in the Irish St Leger and is prepared by an astute trainer in Joseph O’Brien.

Why he can’t win: There has to be a query on whether he has the class to win at this level.

FAME

Why he can win: The rise in distance is what he’s looking for and his career-peak came over 2400m in the Queensland Derby behind Kovalica which is looking strong form in hindsight.

Why he can’t win: Following the Queensland Derby he was beaten 5L behind Without A Fight in the Q22 and he will need to improve sharply on his recent form.

BOIS D’ARGENT

Why he can win: Didn’t have any luck in a high-rating Metropolitan last start and drops in weight.

Why he can’t win: His form doesn’t look anywhere near strong enough.

SPIRIT RIDGE

Why he can win: Drops to 50.5kg, looks the potential leader and gave the winner Just Fine 2.5kg and was beaten narrowly in fast time putting a gap on third in the Metropolitan last start.

Why he can’t win: This is much stronger and he likely needs to improve again.

VALIANT KING

Why he can win: Lightly-raced European three-year-old that was last seen finishing runner-up behind the Melbourne Cup favourite in Vauban.

Why he can’t win: That result might have flattered him and there is a query whether he is good enough.

UNITED NATIONS

Why he can win: Hard fit on the quick back up, is racing well and drops in weight.

Why he can’t win: Form doesn’t look strong enough, draws wide and would need to go to a new level.

SELECTIONS:

2 Without A Fight, 1 Gold Trip, 8 Soulcombe, 6 West Wind Blows