Jack Milner
The R2-million Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas is the lone Grade 1 Guineas in the country and over the years has been won by some of the best horses in racing.
As a result, it is disappointing that Sean Tarry’s Tail Of The Comet is the lone raider at this year’s event over 1600m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday.
Last year Charles Dickens took the honours but unless one of these 11 runners shows massive improvement over the next year or so, this year’s field does not appear to match up to the calibre of last year’s.
However, there is a challenging 10-race card with three graded races, the other two being the Grade 3 Victress Stakes and Grade 3 Peninsula Handicap, as well as a R1-million carryover Pick 6 starting at Race 4, with the pool likely to reach R5 million.
A lot of the analysis for this race lies in the result of the Grade 2 Cape Punters Cup over this course and distance on 26 November. That event was won by Justin Snaith-trained Hluhluwe, who touched off stablemate Snow Pilot by 0.40 lengths with Dean Kannemeyer-trained Green With Envy another short head back in third. All of Questioning (4th), Tail Of The Comet (5th) and Zoomie (6th) were also in that field and will be reopposing in the Guineas.
The question one needs to answer is how accurate is that form?
There were two other races over 1600m that day, the Schweppes Summer Bowl for fillies and mares and a Class 4 Handicap with a benchmark merit rating of 77 – and both races were run in considerably faster times – 96.96secs for the handicap and 97.77secs for the Bowl, while the Grade 2 event was completed in 99.30secs.
There was clearly no pace in that race and that does make the outcome somewhat suspect.
Having said that, it probably made Hluhluwe’s victory even more remarkable because to quicken the way he did off a Cape crawl is no mean feat and as a result the son of Trippi does look the horse to beat.
On that occasion, Snaith's charge was drawn widest of the 10-horse field so was switched off and dropped out to last by jockey Grant van Niekerk. This time he is drawn No 4 and Van Niekerk should be able to place him better.
The other important factor is that Tail Of The Comet, who went off favourite for that race, played up during the loading process and may have run his race before going into the starting stalls. Despite that, he still finished just 2.75 lengths behind the winner.
Hopefully he is better behaved this time and will make life easier for Richard Fourie because after all, this is the race Tarry really wants to win.
Jerusalema Rain had excellent form on the Highveld and was highly rated by trainer Ashley Fortune. He was runner-up to Lucky Lad, beat Sandringham Summit when the latter was making his debut and then finished second behind Main Defender.
He has had two excellent warm-up races and if he stays, will undoubtedly be a threat in this field.
It is rare to have a filly taking on the colts in the Guineas but Red Palace will be doing just that, and gets a 2.5kg sex allowance. She refused to load in the Cape Fillies Guineas and was withdrawn and some pundits feel she will upset the colts.
To do so, however, she will need things to go her way as she takes a massive rise in class.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 4 Casino Ace, 8 Always Free, 1 Riverstone, 5 Gimme's Captain
Race 2: 9 Whistle The Tune, 3 Sahara Cat, 8 Blowin In The Wind, 1 Babelicious
Race 3: 14 Roman Agent, 7 Lion Rampart, 12 Kola Tonic, 5 Bjorn Ironside
Race 4: 8 Underworld, 5 Captain Fontane, 9 Seeking The One, 6 Silver Operator
Race 5: 4 Bardolino, 5 Kingdom Of Heaven, 1 Get Impressed, 6 Lindbergh
Race 6: 7 Gold Poker Game, 2 Saartjie, 5 Happy Chance, 8 Enemy Territory
Race 7: 1 Ponte Pietra, 2 Sugar Mountain, 4 Rockpool, 10 Triple Time
Race 8: 4 Hluhluwe, 8 Tail Of The Comet, 3 Jerusalema Rain, 5 Snow Pilot
Race 9: 12 Mia's Harper, 1 Rani Of Jhansi, 10 Great Cat, 6 Knockout
Race 10:7 Coastal Commander, 10 Open Highway, 3 Lunch Money, 6 Moya Wa Laliga
BEST BET
Race 1 No 4 Casino Ace
VALUE BET
Race 5 No 4 Bardolino
BEST SWINGER
Race 6 2x7
BIPOT
R324
Leg 1: 3, 8, 9
Leg 2: 7, 12, 14
Leg 3: 5, 8, 9
Leg 4: 1, 4, 5
Leg 5: 2, 7
Leg 6: 1, 2
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R216
Leg 1: 7, 14
Leg 2: 5, 8, 9
Leg 3: 1, 4, 5
Leg 4: 2, 7
Leg 5: 1, 2
Leg 6: 4
Leg 7: 1, 10, 12
PICK 6
R1920
Leg 1: 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Leg 2: 1, 4, 5, 6
Leg 3: 2, 5, 7
Leg 4: 1, 2, 4, 10
Leg 5: 4, 8
Leg 6: 1, 6, 10, 12
JACKPOT 1
R96
Leg 1: 1, 4, 5, 6
Leg 2: 2, 5, 7
Leg 3: 1, 2, 4, 10
Leg 4: 4, 8
JACKPOT 2
R160
Leg 1: 1, 2, 4, 10
Leg 2: 4, 8
Leg 3: 1, 6, 10, 12
Leg 4: 3, 6, 7, 8, 10