Jack Milner
On the surface the last few runs of Southern Blaze, while decent enough, look prosaic in the overall scheme of things.
Until the running of the Grade 2 World Sports Betting Gauteng Guineas, that is.
That is because in his penultimate and antepenultimate runs, the Stuart Pettigrew-trained runner finished third and second respectively behind Guineas winner Eye Of The Prophet.
Paul Matchett’s charge caused an upset when holding Royal Victory at bay by a short head.
Three runs back, in November last year, Southern Blaze went down two lengths to Eye Of The Prophet, giving him 2kg. Then, three weeks later he was again beaten by the three-year-old gelding at level weights, going down 0.25 lengths.
Both runs were over 1600m on the Vaal Classic track.
Southern Blaze followed those two runs with a victory of his own, beating Fateful Day by 1.25 lengths in a MR 88 Handicap over 1450m on the Vaal Classic track.
The four-year-old Global View gelding lines up back at the Vaal Classic course on Tuesday in Race 6, a MR 88 Handicap over 1600m, and looks had to oppose in this line-up. He takes a drop in class and does not face the strongest opposition.
Apprentice Philasande Mxoli has built up a good rapport with this gelding, having ridden him in his last eight starts for two wins and four places.
If there is a threat, it is likely to come from Indus Knight from the Candice Dawson stable. The four-year-old Flower Alley gelding has twice run against Southern Blaze and was beaten on both occasions.
Last time he ended up a three-length third behind Southern Blaze but as he is just 1.5kg better off on this occasion, should not be able to reverse the placings. However, 1.5kg of that difference is made up by the apprentice allowance of Malesela Katjedi, who rode him last time, while on this occasion Gavin Lerena will be aboard Indus Knight.
There are always two schools of thought on that issue, one simply believing that 1.5kg is 1.5kg no matter who is aboard and another who feel the 1.5kg is there to make up any deficiency and apprentice may have while still learning to ply his trade.
But, to quote Joe Soma after Piere Strydom won the Wilgerbosdrift Gauteng Fillies Guineas aboard Lady Of Power, “education just teaches one how to spell experience”.
It should be quite a thrilling race to watch.
The scratching of Silver Mensa from Race 5, a MR 89 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1000m, should pave the way for Rose For Trippi, who was strongly fancied last time but blew her chances when losing two lengths at the start.
The Mike and Adam Azzie-trained filly destroyed her field two runs back and that was more like her best form. That run was in the wet and with more rain expected over the next day or so, the underfoot conditions should suit.
This is another decent ride for Lerena at the meeting.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 4 Battleground, 2 Banha Bridge, 5 Namaqua Blossom, 3 Greenbackcurrency
Race 2: 2 Diesel And Dust, 7 Billy Spellbound, 4 Laguna Verde, 1 Total Protection
Race 3: 1 Mover And Shaker, 3 Twin Strike, 5 What A Tiger, 6 Above The World
Race 4: 2 Aniara, 6 Samoa, 10 Beaded Gown, 9 In The Ether
Race 5: 3 Rose For Trippi, 1 May Queen, 5 Queen Of Gaul, 4 Rozara
Race 6: 2 Southern Blaze, 6 Indus Knight, 7 Duke Of Rain, 1 Invincible Warrior
Race 7: 7 Meridius, 9 Trident King, 3 Fateful Day, 1 Indlamu
Race 8: 2 Stroke Of Mercy, 1 Smith And Wesson, 8 Power Ranger, 7 Written In Stone
BEST BET
Race 3 No 1 Mover And Shaker
VALUE BET
Race 4 No 2 Aniara
BEST SWINGER
Race 6 2x6
BIPOT
R108
Leg 1: 2, 4, 5
Leg 2: 2, 4, 7
Leg 3: 1
Leg 4: 2, 6, 10
Leg 5: 1, 3
Leg 6: 2, 6
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R216
Leg 1: 2, 4, 7
Leg 2: 1
Leg 3: 2, 6, 10
Leg 4: 1, 3
Leg 5: 2, 6
Leg 6: 7, 9
Leg 7: 1, 2, 8
PICK 6
R1200
Leg 1: 1
Leg 2: 2, 5, 6, 9, 10
Leg 3: 1, 3, 4, 5
Leg 4: 2, 6
Leg 5: 1, 3, 7, 9, 10
Leg 6: 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 9
JACKPOT 1
R200
Leg 1: 2, 5, 6, 9, 10
Leg 2: 1, 3, 4, 5
Leg 3: 2, 6
Leg 4: 1, 3, 7, 9, 10
JACKPOT 2
R240
Leg 1: 1, 3, 4, 5
Leg 2: 2, 6
Leg 3: 1, 3, 7, 9, 10
Leg 4: 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 9