Jack Milner
An interesting Middle Stakes over 1200m heads up Thursday’s card at the Vaal where they race on the Classic track.
It is quite an open race and the only surprise that bookmakers have priced up one horse as the 4-1 favourite is that they are arguably betting too tight.
If one can catch this race right there should be some good return on one’s investment.
As a Middle Stakes there are runners who do have a weight advantage and topping that list are fillies Moonshiningthrough and Lucy In The Sky, owing in the main to their sex allowance.
However, third on that list is Prophet, and this gelding could provide excellent value to bettors.
This Corne Spies-trained three-year-old was one of the top-rated two-year-olds in the land and went off favourite for the Grade 1 Gold Medallion at Hollywoodbets Scottsville last year.
His three-year-old career has been less impressive but he did pop up with some decent races over the past few months.
He was tried persistently over longer distances but has not won a race beyond 1450m.
One of the key factors is that his merit rating has come down from a high of 110 to 102 and that could make him far more competitive. He has been competing in races with verge merit ratings of over 100 and has been running against the likes of stablemate William Robertson (behind whom he finished third in a Pinnacle Stakes over 1160m at Turffontein) and Princess Calla.
The average merit rating of this race is 94, a significant drop.
The fact he is returning to a sprint distance is also significant and that could make a difference.
He will also be fitted with blinkers for this run and will have the services of Piere Strydom. This race will be run around the turn and Prophet will jump from barrier No 5 which should be ideal.
There are many with chances and on form there is little to choose between Thunderstone, the runner who has been priced up as the 4-1 favourite, Moonshiningthrough and Aussenkehr.
Roy Magner’s charge finished a head behind Moonshiningthrough last time and as they meet at the same weights the latter should still have the edge. However, Muzi Yeni, who knows this gelding well, is back in the irons on this occasion and that could give him the edge.
Aussenkehr won three in a row since arriving at Tony Peter’s yard from Cape Town but the 16-point (8kg) penalty for those successes appear to have taken their toll and perhaps the handicapper has caught up to him.
Others to consider are Smith And Wesson, Fostinovo and Tsar Bomba.
Jack Milner’s selections:
Race 1: 1 Aunt Pittypat, 2 Impression, 4 Dusky Rose, 6 Punta Alta
Race 2: 7 Super Awesome, 9 Flying Diamond, 6 Mister Whistle, 8 Triskelion
Race 3: 6 Golden Pavilion, 1 Viva De Janeiro, 5 Circle Of Grace, 7 Kudzu
Race 4: 10 Pass The Baton, 2 Zoom Lady, 1 Green Bubbles, 3 Count Your Chances
Race 5: 8 Leao Alado, 3 Manz Knight, 1 Time To Meditate, 2 Desert Fox
Race 6: 6 Elembee, 1 Cape Lights, 5 Say Yes, 3 Ululate
Race 7: 5 Suryavarman, 1 Global Impact, 3 Johnny Dogs, 4 Captain Of Grit
Race 8: 1 Prophet, 5 Thunderstone, 2 Moonshiningthrough, 8 Smith And Wesson
Race 9: 3 Brosnan, 1 Fort Lauderdale, 2 Fully Loaded, 4 After Hours
BEST BET
Race 5 No 8 Leao Alado
VALUE BET
Race 8 No 1 Prophet
BEST SWINGER
Race 3 1x6
BIPOT
R40
Leg 1: 7
Leg 2: 1, 6
Leg 3: 1, 2, 3, 4, 10
Leg 4: 8
Leg 5: 1, 6
Leg 6: 1, 5
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R256
Leg 1: 1, 6
Leg 2: 1, 2, 3, 10
Leg 3: 8
Leg 4: 1, 6
Leg 5: 1, 5
Leg 6: 1, 2, 5, 8
Leg 7: 1, 3
PICK 6
R2016
Leg 1: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10, 11
Leg 2: 8
Leg 3: 1, 5, 6
Leg 4: 1, 5
Leg 5: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 10, 11
Leg 6: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8
JACKPOT 1
R42
Leg 1: 8
Leg 2: 1, 5, 6
Leg 3: 1, 5
Leg 4: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 10, 11
JACKPOT 2
R252
Leg 1: 1, 5, 6
Leg 2: 1, 5
Leg 3: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 10, 11
Leg 4: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8
NOW IT'S UP TO YOU! #TAKEABET & #WINBIG... www.TAB4racing.com