The talk for Grade 1 Sunday’s BMW Hong Kong Derby over 2000m is all about Beauty Eternal but the value could lie with trainer David Hall and jockey Luke Ferraris.
The duo warmed up for the HK$24 million feature in perfect style with a win of their own at Happy Valley on Wednesday thanks to the victory of Melbourne Hall.
Ferraris has kept the ride aboard Atullibigeal for the Derby after partnering the four-year-old into fifth last weekend and Hall hopes the pair can keep their momentum building.
“The horse seemed to run very well for Luke on the weekend, so we’ll give him his chance in the Derby,” Hall said.
“It’s good for that winner to happen at Happy Valley to give everyone a bit more confidence going into Sunday. I think the horse is as good as we can have him.
“I think the preparation has worked out well. I was really pleased with his performance (last weekend), and I’m really pleased with the way he’s come through it. The 2000m is unknown territory for a lot of them – and he’s one of them – but I’m very confident he’ll run the distance if he relaxes.”
Atullibigeal is Hall’s third Derby runner and presents Ferraris with his best chance in the Classic 12 months after he booted around $207 chance Mr Ascendency in his maiden Hong Kong season.
“He’s a nice horse. He’s obviously got his quirks – it doesn’t take a lot for him to overrace – so a lot of things have got to go his way. Let’s see what the draw is like, but I’m very happy to be on him,” Ferraris said of Atullibigeal.
He ended up with No 12 barrier at yesterday’s draw ceremony.
Meanwhile pedigree expert Matthew Ennis says Atullibigeal and Straight Arron profile as the BMW Hong Kong Derby runners who represent the biggest threats to favourite Beauty Eternal at Sha Tin on Sunday.
Ennis, managing director of breeding research tool G1 Goldmine, analysed not only the pedigrees of this year’s 14 Derby contenders but also the breeding of the past 20 Derby champions in an effort to identify betting value in Hong Kong’s most prestigious race.
The tool, which thoroughbred breeders employ to find perfect stallions for their prized mares based on proven crosses and yearling buyers use to evaluate sales catalogues, allocates a rating – Outstanding, Excellent, Good, Neutral or Poor – to each galloper based on how similar they are to international stakes winners and the results of their respective crosses.
Beauty Eternal, who could start this weekend’s Derby as one of the race’s hottest-ever favourites as the hype surrounding John Size’s youngster continues to grow, boasts one of the three Outstanding pedigrees, but Ennis believes 1600m is his optimal trip.
“One of the reasons Atullibigeal gets promoted on the system is both of his tail female families are influencing his pedigree,” Ennis said.
“We see it, but we don’t see as often as we’d like. We see it a lot in elite horses where that tail female from the sire and that tail female from the dam are positive contributors to the pedigree.
“It’s really potent when those tail females then complement each other. From a pedigree perspective, he’s the most interesting Derby runner. There are so many crosses within five generations of his pedigree with proven success over the race distance.”
Among Atullibigeal’s closest relatives is, arguably, Australia’s premier active galloper, Anamoe, who won last year’s Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m) 12 months after many pundits thought he should have been promoted from second to first on protest. - South China Morning Post
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