Jack Milner
Bavarian Beauty’s last four runs have comprised three Grade 1 races and one Grade 2 event.
She contested the Grade 1 Wilgerbosdrift SA Fillies Classic at Turffontein over 1800m, followed by the Grade 1 TAB Empress Club Stakes over 1600m at the same venue.
He next two runs were at Hollywoodbets Greyville, starting with the Grade 2 Tibouchina Stakes over 1400m and finally the Grade 1 Ridgemont Garden Province Stakes over 1600m on Durban July day.
While she did not win any of those races, she ran well enough in three of them to finish in touch with the leaders, the one exception being the Empress Club Stakes where she was reported not to be striding out.
Before her last race, the Garden Province Stakes, the word from the Tony Peter stable was that this three-year-old daughter of Querari had come well and they were predicting a good run.
While she did not win, Bavarian Beauty ran well enough to finish fifth, but just 1.75 lengths behind winner Humdinger.
That event is run under weight-for-age conditions so she ran to her net merit rating. She already does have a Grade 1 win to her name as last season, as a two-year-old, she captured the Thekwini Stakes over 1600m at Greyville.
Now this filly takes a mighty drop in class on Saturday when she lines up in a Pinnacle Stakes for fillies and mares over 1400m on the Turffontein Standside track.
While she does carry top weight of 60kg, Bavarian Beauty is the best weighted runner by at least 2kg. She is drawn well enough in gate No 5, has Calvin Habib in the irons and should be too good for her opposition.
Calvin Habib takes the ride once again.
Her closest rival at the weights and on form is Celtic Rumours. Sean Tarry’s charge is the runner closest to Bavarian Beauty on handicap and is just 2kg out.
However, based on their run in the Garden Province Stakes there should not be much between the pair as Celtic Rumours is now 3kg better off for a 2.90-length defeat.
Unfortunately, the four-year-old daughter of Vercingetorix is drawn widest of all in this nine- horse field. Often, in races around the turn on the Standside track at Turffontein, the draw is not that important, but they start very close to the bend in events over 1400m and jockey Gavin Lerena will have to ensure his mount is not caught too wide around the turn.
Overall, this is quite a tricky card but as a result there could be good value to be found. One of those could be On Cue in Race 7, a MR 91 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1000m.
This Paul Matchett-trained five-year-old mare has been quite consistent of last and this daughter of Oratorio looks ready to put a 354-day winless streak behind her.
Her last race was over 1200m and she did not show her usual pace. Maybe that was tried in an attempt to see whether she run on from off the pace.
If that was the case, it was a failure, so the decision to drop her back to 1000m could work well for her. In addition, her merit rating is trickling downward, so that could count in her favour as well.
Muzi Yeni has ridden her three times for a second and two fourth places and he will be back in the irons once again.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 6 Miss Lia, 1 Crimson Cloud, 2 Together Again, 7 Saigon Suzie
Race 2: 8 Zanthar, 9 Komati River, 3 Cat O'Clock, 5 Dylan's Champ
Race 3: 6 Joost Droochsloot, 7 Panning Gold, 9 Robert Browning, 1 Bay Empire
Race 4: 4 Lady Of Tibet, 8 Silver Parasol, 5 Party Punch, 3 Lacewing
Race 5: 2 Dimako's Jet, 8 Call Me Master, 6 Safe Space, 5 Viva De Janeiro
Race 6: 1 Bavarian Beauty, 2 Celtic Rumours, 4 Lady Of Power, 5 Bonete
Race 7: 5 On Cue, 6 What A Lucy, 2 Virginia Beach, 4 Jasiri
Race 8: 2 Munchkin, 1 Ride On, 3 Midnight Fusion, 7 Pendragon
Race 9: 7 Micke's Bomb, 9 Fennec Fox, 6 Neerah, 8 Peace Of Mind
BEST BET
Race 6: 1 Bavarian Beauty
VALUE BET
Race 7: 5 On Cue
BEST SWINGER
Race 2 8x9
BIPOT
R128
Leg 1: 8, 9
Leg 2: 6, 7
Leg 3: 4, 8
Leg 4: 2, 5, 6, 8
Leg 5: 1
Leg 6: 2, 4, 5, 6
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R216
Leg 1: 6
Leg 2: 4, 8
Leg 3: 2, 6, 8
Leg 4: 1
Leg 5: 2, 5, 6
Leg 6: 1, 2, 3
Leg 7: 6, 7, 8, 9
PICK 6
R2000
Leg 1: 3, 4, 5, 8
Leg 2: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8
Leg 3: 1
Leg 4: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Leg 5: 1, 2, 3, 7
Leg 6: 2, 6, 7, 8, 9
JACKPOT 1
R100
Leg 1: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8
Leg 2: 1
Leg 3: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Leg 4: 1, 2, 3, 7
JACKPOT 2
R100
Leg 1: 1
Leg 2: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Leg 3: 1, 2, 3, 7
Leg 4: 2, 6, 7, 8, 9