Jack Milner
It is Derby Day at Turffontein on Saturday which sees the running of a series of Graded races.
It is headed up by Grade 1 World Sports Betting SA Derby for three-year-olds over 2450m, the prestigious Grade 1 HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes (Grade 1) over 1600m and the Grade 2 Wilgerbosdrift Bridget Oppenheimer Oaks for three-year-old fillies over 2450m.
The Derby and Oaks are also the final legs of the of the SA Triple Crown and the Triple Tiara for fillies, but no runner has claimed the first two legs of the respective competitions so those prizes are not up for grabs.
The issue with the R1.5-million WSB SA Derby is that only one runner has won over the distance and that is Good Council. This Ashley Fortune-trained runner could not have been more impressive last time out when taking on a bunch of older horses in the Listed Aquanaut Handicap over 2400m at this course and went on to score an impressive 2.25-length win over Raiseahallelujah
That performance must bring this Ashley Fortune-trained Oratorio gelding into the Derby picture, but there are a couple of lessons one can take from his performance.
The first is that this was the first time he had tried the distance which is now the case with the balance of his opposition. The second is that his time for the race was very slow which did not turn the race into a test of stamina.
Thirdly, he will carry 6kg more this time and finally he was well beaten by Eye Of The Prophet the WSB Gauteng Guineas. In fairness, that was his first run after a roughly 10-week break.
But the key message is that just because a horse has not run over the distance, does not mean he won’t see it out.
But what is so often the case with these three-year-old features, class often proves more telling than staying power and one usually finds the highest rated runners are more likely to prevail.
In the case of the Derby that runner is Billy Bowlegs. Alec Laird’s runner finished third in the WSB Grade 1 SA Classic and his trainer admitted his charge went into that race a little underdone because of heavy rains that set back his training schedule for a week.
He will be fully fit going into this race and as the highest rated runner could have the edge.
Gavin Lerena has picked up the ride on The United States colt for the first time.
Son Of Raj threw his name into the mix quite late but after his outstanding victory in the Listed Derby Trial last time, Weiho Marwing’s charge must come into the reckoning.
He looked quite average for a while but improved when blinkers were fitted. Two runs back he ended up a fast finishing 1.40-length fourth behind Prime Example over 2400m and then a flood of money saw him start favourite for the Derby Trial.
The money was not misplaced as he ran out a very comfortable three-length winner with Prime Example nine lengths behind him. Prime Example franked the form of both races with a narrow victory over 2400m at the Vaal yesterday.
It is also worth noting Keagan de Melo has stayed with the ride.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 4 Cosmic Star, 1 Fort Lauderdale, 7 Sagan, 9 Mia Fiore
Race 2: 2 Tabebuia, 3 Tamarisk Tree, 5 Climate Control, 6 Zuzan
Race 3 1 Master Archie, 4 Big Burn, 2 Bartholdi, 3 Winter Stories
Race 4: 3 Whafeef, 1 Indlamu, 7 Queen Of Shadows, 5 Supreme Quest
Race 5: 3 Quantum Theory, 3 Gobsmacked, 4 Maharanee, 1 Mercantour
Race 6: 7 Anfields Rocket, 9 Under Your Spell, 3 Golden Ducat, 5 Trip Of Fortune
Race 7: 1 Billy Bowlegs, 10 Son Of Raj, 5 Good Council, 4 Electric Gold
Race 8: 1 Bless My Stars, 2 Lady Of Power, 5 None Other, 6 Silver Hills
Race 9: 1 Shangani, 2 Nebraas, 6 Arumugam, 5 Flashy Apache
Race 10: 4 Storm Dictator, 1 Black Egret, 2 Lil Miss Moneybags, 8 Tiz Magic
BEST BET
Race 10 No 4 Storm Dictator
VALUE BET
Race 5 No 2 Quantum Theory
BEST SWINGER
Race 9 1x2
BIPOT
R324
Leg 1: 2, 3, 5, 6
Leg 2: 1, 2, 4
Leg 3: 1, 3, 7
Leg 4: 2, 3, 4
Leg 5: 3, 7, 9
Leg 6: 1
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R243
Leg 1: 1, 2, 4
Leg 2: 1, 3, 7
Leg 3: 2, 3, 4
Leg 4: 7, 9
Leg 5: 1
Leg 6: 1, 2, 5
Leg 7: 1
PICK 6
R1920
Leg 1: 1, 3, 5, 7
Leg 2: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
Leg 3: 3, 7, 9
Leg 4: 1, 5, 10
Leg 5: 1, 2, 5, 6
Leg 6: 1, 2
JACKPOT 1
R240
Leg 1: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
Leg 2: 3, 7, 9
Leg 3: 1, 5, 10
Leg 4: 1, 2, 5, 6
JACKPOT 2
R24
Leg 1: 1, 5, 10
Leg 2: 1, 2, 5, 6
Leg 3: 1, 2
Leg 4: 4