Are three-year-olds being overrated?

Jack Milner

One of the debates surrounding the way the merit rating system is applied is that three-year-olds are often overrated while older runners have been given some leeway in order to keep them competitive.

The counter argument is that older horses still running in merit rated 80 handicaps have reached, if not already passed, their peak level and further improvement is improbable, while a three-year-old is likely to have some way to go before they reach their peak.

That is all likely to come under the microscope once again after the running of Race 8 at the Vaal on Tuesday, a MR 80 Handicap over 1400m up the straight.

Two of the strongly fancied runners are three-year-old Work Of Time and Whorly Whorly, a nine-year-old gelding. To complicate the matter further, Work Of Time is a filly taking on the colts and is a one-time winner from five starts with one second and two third places.

Trained by Brett Crawford in his Randjesfontein yard on the highveld run by his son James, this Rafeef filly is a full sister to 10-time winner William Robertson. At this stage of her career she has not contested any feature races, has earnings of R105,125 and a net merit rating of 79, as three-year-olds get a 3kg weight-for-age allowance.

At the other end of the scale Whorly Whorly has raced 83 times for 13 wins and 22 places, has earnings of R1,101,625 and runs off a merit rating of 76.

That means in this handicap Work Of Time will be giving Clinton Binda’s charge 1.5kg.

For the record, Whorly Whorly is not out of form. In his last five races he has notched up two wins, a second, a third as well as a sixth place in his last start in which he was beaten by just two lengths.

While this might sound like a call for merit rating reform, it is actually not, because this three-year-old filly is the runner taken to win this.

Two runs back Whorly Whorly was in a similar situation when he took on Mid Winter Wind, a three-year-old gelding who was giving him 4.5kg but went on to beat him by a length. The winner of that race is clearly a talented three-year-old who has gone on to win again.

But it must be pointed out Whorly Whorly was having his first run after a four-month break and may have been in need of the run. This time it will be his third race after that break, and he will also have the advantage of having Piere Strydom up.

Strydom has ridden the gelding 11 times and is responsible for four of his wins, including his last in October 2023.

Work Of Time might not have it all her own way and this is a full field of 20 horses, but she does appear to have a bright future and jockey Kabelo Matsunyane, who has ridden her three times, could well get the job done.

Others to consider are Pocket Watch, Sage King and Turbo Power.

Jack Milner’s selections

Race 1: 9 Deception Pass, 8 Al Akhtaar, 10 Russian Lotus, 2 Breath Of Magic

Race 2: 3 Lead The Charge, 4 Moonlight Trader, 5 Page Boy, 7 Messalina

Race 3: 1 African Beauty, 4 Fatal Flaw, 7 Olivia's Way, 9 Queen Of Fire

Race 4: 9 Sensual Kiss, 1 Springer, 2 Arctic Vixen, 3 Blue Quartz

Race 5: 1 Reny, 3 Slinky Mapimpi, 4 Professor Snape, 9 Banha Bridge

Race 6: 3 Open Highway, 1 Midnight Fusion, 5 Thing Called Love, 6 Lady Elliot

Race 7: 6 Great Barrier, 1 Mia Fiore, 4 Que Ceu Azul, 10 Can't Catch Me

Race 8: 6 Work Of Time, 12 Whorly Whorly, 8 Pocket Watch, 19 Sage King

Race 9: 10 Cerulean Dancer, 11 Thambi, 9 Kashkaval, 3 Munchkin

BEST BET

Race 3: 1 African Beauty

VALUE BET

Race 7: 6 Great Barrier

BEST SWINGER

Race 2 3x4

BIPOT

R192

Leg 1: 3, 4

Leg 2: 1

Leg 3: 1, 9

Leg 4: 1, 3, 4, 9

Leg 5: 1, 3, 5

Leg 5: 1, 4, 6, 10

PLACE ACCUMULATOR

R324

Leg 1: 1

Leg 2: 1, 9

Leg 3: 1, 3, 4

Leg 4: 1, 3, 5

Leg 5: 1, 4, 6

Leg 6: 6, 12

Leg 7: 9, 10, 11

PICK 6

R2160

Leg 1: 1, 2, 9

Leg 2: 1, 3, 4, 9

Leg 3: 1, 3, 5

Leg 4: 1, 4, 6, 10

Leg 5: 6, 8, 12

Leg 6: 3, 6, 9, 10, 11

JACKPOT 1

R144

Leg 1: 1, 3, 4, 9

Leg 2: 1, 3, 5

Leg 3: 1, 4, 6, 10

Leg 4: 6, 8, 12

JACKPOT 2

R180

Leg 1: 1, 3, 5

Leg 2: 1, 4, 6, 10

Leg 3: 6, 8, 12

Leg 4: 3, 6, 9, 10, 11