Arc de Triomphe horse-by-horse analysis

Sporting Life’s Matt Brocklebank runs the rule over the 20 contenders for Sunday's Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp.

 MISHRIFF

No doubt one of the best middle-distance turf horses in the world over last couple of seasons but 2022 continues to prove a source of frustrating and hard to argue he’s getting better as a five-year-old this time around.

Soft ground looked against him (not for the first time) when beaten two and a half lengths into fourth behind three of these rivals in the Irish Champion Stakes and, regardless of the going this weekend, a return to this longer trip doesn’t look in his favour.

TORQUATOR TASSO

Won the Grosser Preis von Berlin after just missing out in the German Derby earlier in his three-year-old season (unraced at two) and last year’s Arc success was the culmination of a fine campaign at four.

Has only added small Hamburg Group 2 to his tally from four starts this year but wasn’t disgraced when second in the King George and looked in need of the run when scrambling to be a close second at Baden-Baden last time.

More rain in the build-up the better and could be about to peak again at just the right time but others look more convincing as he certainly doesn’t scream ‘dual Arc winner’ at you.

MARE AUSTRALIS

Won Group 1 Prix Ganay last May but subsequently spent almost a year off the track and he’s taken a while to warm to things since resuming. Did win a Group 2 at Chantilly over this trip (soft ground) in June but pretty significant backward step when down the field behind Alpinista in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last time out in July. Subsequent absence also concerning so the jury’s definitely out.

SEALIWAY

Scratching around for best form this year having ended 2021 in great style, running an eye-catching fifth here before winning the Champion Stakes at Ascot.Could have been trained for this time of year all along but still not fully convinced he wants a thorough test over quite this far and perhaps it was a case of his main market rivals (Adayar and Mishriff) just not firing at Ascot last year.

ALENQUER

Made best possible start to four-year-old campaign by opening his Group 1 account with a game performance in the Tattersalls Gold Cup but others look to have sharpened up since then and he’s simply not delivered on the promise.

Granted, the ground was too quick when put in his place by Vadeni in the Coral-Eclipse but no obvious excuse (70-day layoff?) when resuming in Irish Champion Stakes and he’s got plenty of ground to make up on that showing.

DEEP BOND

Talked up as a lively outsider for this last year when coming into it on the back of a trial win in the Prix Foy but he appeared to resent the heavy conditions and trailed home last. Back on track on home turf this year with an odds-win back in March but since well held by compatriot Titleholder on a couple of occasions and would cause a bit of a stir if he’s in the shake-up.

BROOME

Getting a bit long in the tooth and while his experience in this major global Group 1s has to be of some benefit, he’s proving quite hard to catch right this year and the one win came in a weak edition of the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot.

No question over his stamina for the trip and he’ll handle any ground that’s put in front of him but likely to be 3kg to 5kg short of what’s required when it really matters. Only beat three home last year.

STAY FOOLISH

Japanese challenger who has always come unstuck when tried at the highest level and hard to see that changing. Ran a game enough race in his prep at Deauville in late-August but a long way behind Titleholder in the Kakarazuka Kinen before that and likely to be on offer a huge price.

MOSTAHDAF

Has only run in one Group 1 in his career and he finished 12th, so wouldn’t be getting too carried away with his recent success at Kempton, which looked pretty impressive on the day.

That made it 3-3 on the all-weather and he’s likely to have some nice targets on synthetic surfaces in the months to come but doesn’t look made of the right stuff for this sort of test.

MENDOCINO

Comes at a huge price but has some eye-catching form to his name, including a close second behind Alpinista last November and a narrow defeat of 2021 Arc hero Torquator Tasso in German Group 1 last time out. Bit of a mixed bag in between but clearly capable of holding his own in this sort of company and he wouldn’t mind at all if it came up extremely testing underfoot.

TITLEHOLDER

Looks the best turf horse in Japan on this year’s evidence, winning top races from 2200m to 3200m, although the fact they’ve been on typically quick ground must strike a chord. A relatively dry week would be a significant boost to his claims and he’s likely to be towards the fore from the off, granted a half-decent draw. Whether he’ll pay a price for that initial exuberance in this company is another matter.

BUBBLE GIFT

Beaten only 1.50 lengths by Alpinista earlier in the year and made a perfectly creditable bid in his recent trial but he lacks a bit of star quality to say the least. Only eighth at this course 12 months ago and hard to weigh up whether he’ll fare much better this time as he doesn’t look to be getting any quicker.

GRAND GLORY

Six-year-old mare who perhaps isn’t the most consistent but can produce the odd sparkling performance when things fall her way. Did just that when winning Group 1 Prix Romanet at a big price last August and interesting to see she skipped that this term and instead went for the Prix Vermeille, in which the lack of pace saw her race too keenly early on before not getting a great trip in the straight.

She’ll go on soft ground and while yet to win over this far, a big run at long odds wouldn’t come as a huge shock.

ALPINISTA

Real sense of what could have been after this race last year as she’d beaten winner Torquator Tasso earlier in 2021 but ended up back in Germany to win another Group 1. Has taken her time to come to hand this year but signs are extremely positive after Saint-Cloud and York success, after which it was always the plan to come straight into the Arc.

She’s straightforward pre-race, handles all types of conditions and is as tough as they come in a battle so every reason to think it’ll take a great performance to lower her colours.

VADENI

Three-year-old colt with a great burst of speed and they’ve been highly effective in this race down the years. Showed himself to be top-class in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown and shaped a touch better than the bare result when third in his Irish Champion Stakes prep run last time. Entitled to strip fitter for that but does need to prove he stays 2400m which won’t be easy in this company.

AL HAKEEM

Something of a dark horse coming into this as he represents the race sponsors and trainer Jean-Claude Rouget has compared him favourably to stablemate Vadeni in the past too. His form to this point is short of the required level but he brings a considerable amount of potential with him, and he looked to win with more in hand than the bare margin at Deauville last time.

An Arc prep was never seemingly part of the plan so it would be foolish to take him lightly given he’s bred to improve for the first crack at 2400m.

ONESTO

Frankel colt with a superb pedigree and a burgeoning CV to match after another fine effort at Leopardstown last time. Defeat in the Irish Champion Stakes isn’t the end of the road for any Arc contender and the fact he’s already won over this course and distance has to be considered a major feather in the cap.

Grand Prix de Paris form has worked out well among the three-year-olds and he only has 0.50 lengths to find on Luxembourg if that first run since July helps sharpen him up for the autumn. Surely runs in this rather than waiting for a crack at Baaeed.

WESTOVER

Sizeable colt who always promised to be better at three (only 1-3 as a juvenile). He looked a shade unlucky to only finish third after a luckless trip in the Derby and effectively proved as much with a bloodless victory in the Irish version at the Curragh.

Perhaps the King George was too much too soon less than a month after his Classic triumph and the freshness angle coming here without a prep looks potentially quite interesting given he won first time out as a two-year-old and earlier this year too when landing the Classic Trial at Sandown. Ralph Beckett’s horses remain in good shape so a return to peak form looks very possible, in which case he’s a big player who is still being a little overlooked in the betting.

DO DEUCE

Japanese Derby winner who looked to be building a pretty convincing profile but fears over European campaign hit home immediately when faced with soft ground in his Prix Niel prep run when only fourth of seven and never really a factor. Good chance he’ll step forward from that in terms of fitness and general know-how but conditions aren’t going to be as quick as he’s used to back home, so others look better equipped.

LUXEMBOURG

Didn’t make the track until mid-July as a juvenile but, after winning first time out at Killarney, he then spent 73 days off before thriving in the autumn of his two-year-old campaign with Group-race success at the Curragh and Doncaster.

Returned in the 2000 Guineas where he finished a staying-on third despite picking up an injury and has built on that huge promise in two more recent starts, winning Curragh Group 3 before beating French challengers Onesto and Vadeni to land the top-class Irish Champion Stakes.

Not raced beyond 2000m but pedigree and style of racing suggests he could improve for it, if anything. That’ll probably need to be the case but he’s already achieved enough to suggest he’s one to take very seriously in any Arc - this probably isn’t the hottest edition we’ve seen recently so he’s a perfectly logical market leader.

VERDICT

It's hard to fault Luxembourg who built on his relatively ragged comeback win to land what looked a warm enough edition of the Irish Champion Stakes. It's not absolutely certain he'll improve again from that, though, so I wouldn't be in a hurry to rule out either Onesto or Vadeni - or both - reversing the form, though the latter doesn't look an obvious stayer on his first try at the trip, especially if it's testing ground.

Alpinista is as likeable as they come and looks a solid proposition for her popular team. Sir Mark Prescott's mare is arguably the one to beat but around twice her price WESTOVER looks to be sitting on a big performance.

He goes well fresh, clearly wasn't anywhere near to his best in the King George and looked a colt of considerable substance when running away with the Irish Derby prior to Ascot. There are no real weather concerns for the son of Frankel and Ralph Beckett is renowned for keeping his horses sweet well into the autumn.

SELECTION

1-WESTOVER

2-Alpinista

3-Onesto