Jack Milner
A horseracing aficionado once told me that one should ignore maiden winners in their next start unless they had one by at least five lengths.
One is not sure whether that holds true any longer because since the introduction of the merit rating system, trainers often hope their runners do not win by too far as they end up incurring massive penalties from the handicapper.
However, when a runner does completely blow a field apart and wins by 13 lengths that has to make one sit up and take notice.
Of course, it could also indicate the lack of quality in the field against whom they raced but in the case of Far Reaching that might not altogether be true.
What is true, however, is that there were only five runners in that field and the three-year-old Vercingetorix filly was able to sit up front at her own pace.
As expected, the handicappers read quite a bit into that victory and handed her a 13-point penalty which equates to 6.5kg.
Well, we will be able to evaluate that run far better after the running of Race 5 on the Vaal Classic track on Thursday because the Johan Janse van Vuuren-trained runner will make her reappearance in this MR 70 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1800m.
Far Reaching had to be showing something at home because she was well supported in all of her early races as a two-year-old. However, she was racing predominantly over 1000m which was clearly too short for her, but she still managed to run close up. It was not until she was tried over 1450m on the Vaal Classic track that she really showed her true talent.
On that occasion she was touched off a short head by Together Again and it came as no surprise she would improve further going 1600m. Her dam is by Dynasty and she notched up three wins over 1600m. She also ran only 2.40 lengths behind Barahin in the Grade 3 Jubilee Handicap over 1800m at Turffontein.
Interestingly, the average merit rating in tomorrow’s race is 76, one point lower than that of her maiden win.
S’manga Khumalo rode her to victory and is carded to ride her again, but he is medically indisposed and Piere Strydom has picked up the ride.
Tony Peter dominates Race 1, a Work Riders Maiden for fillies and mares over 1000m, saddling four of the seven runners, including Basingstoke and Bellissivar, who should fight out the finish.
The pair are closely matched on the form of their most recent head-to-head clash over the course and distance, which the former edged by 0.50 lengths. Considering that they met in their penultimate too, when Bellissivar was six lengths clear of her stable companion, it does seem that Basingstoke has made more improvement.
Still, there is not much to choose between the fillies and their rematch could go either way, so including them in boxed Swinger and Exacta bets is the safer route.
Hokaai My Meisie also represents the Peter-yard but needs to improve on recent performances to play a role, while stablemate Cars Big As Bars, a four-year-old Pathfork-newcomer, needn’t be special to make her presence felt.
Erupt-filly Seventeen Again showed promise in a three-start juvenile campaign all over 1000m by finishing second in consecutive outings before opening her account under Gavin Lerena on Turffontein's Inside track in mid-July.
She makes her reappearance on her three-year-old debut in Race 8 over the same distance and it should pay to follow her progress, despite the jockey change. With Lerena unable to make 55.5kg, Keratile Katjedi gets the ride and he ought to grab the opportunity with both hands.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 5 Basingstoke, 6 Bellissivar, 3 Cars Big As Bars, 7 Cyber Spirit
Race 2: 5 Kwagga Blitz, 1 Pacific, 6 Potberrie, 9 Letona
Race 3: 7 Thunee Playa, 5 Tamarisk Tree, 9 Total Surrender, 4 Arumugam
Race 4: 2 Apache Fighter, 3 Ariel's Jet, 7 Olivia's Way, 6 Mighty Goddess
Race 5: 2 Far Reaching, 3 One Religion, 4 Silver Parasol, 8 Hat's Queen
Race 6: 8 Party Punch, 5 Japanese Maple, 2 American Rebel, 3 Safe Space
Race 7: 6 Just The Two Of Us, 4 Green Flash, 9 The Navy Lark, 3 Virginia Beach
Race 8: 7 Seventeen Again, 4 Micke's Bomb, 9 Smashing, 5 In The Ether
BEST BET
Race 5 No 2 Far Reaching
VALUE BET
Race 6 No 8 Party Punch
BEST SWINGER
Race 2 1x5
BIPOT
R72
Leg 1: 5
Leg 2: 1, 5
Leg 3: 5, 7, 9
Leg 4: 2, 3, 7
Leg 5: 2
Leg 6: 2, 3, 5, 8
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R243
Leg 1: 5
Leg 2: 5, 7, 9
Leg 3: 2, 3, 7
Leg 4: 2
Leg 5: 2, 5, 8
Leg 6: 4, 6, 9
Leg 7: 4, 7, 9
PICK 6
R2000
Leg 1: 4, 5, 7, 9
Leg 2: 2, 3, 6, 7
Leg 3: 2
Leg 4: 2, 3, 4, 5, 8
Leg 5: 1, 3, 4, 6, 9
Leg 6: 3, 4, 5, 7, 9
JACKPOT 1
R100
Leg 1: 2, 3, 6, 7
Leg 2: 2
Leg 3: 2, 3, 4, 5, 8
Leg 4: 1, 3, 4, 6, 9
JACKPOT 2
R125
Leg 1: 2
Leg 2: 2, 3, 4, 5, 8
Leg 3: 1, 3, 4, 6, 9
Leg 4: 3, 4, 5, 7, 9