Jack Milner
We all know that when it comes to horseracing, there is no such thing as a racing certainty.
So many things can go wrong during a race that could turn the so-called “good thing” into a runner-up, or even worse, an “also ran”.
But occasionally one finds a runner who you honestly believe that unless something major happens, will come home lonely.
That looks to be the case with Winds Of Change who lines up in Race 1 at the Vaal on Thursday, a Maiden Juvenile Plate over 1200m on the Classic track.
Trained by Mike and Adam Azzie, this son of What A Winter is a half-brother to both Safe Passage and Silver Sanctuary (they are both by Silvano) and based on his first two runs looks to have the same level of ability.
The Azzies took their charge to Cape Town for the summer and he made his debut in the Listed Summer Juvenile at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth where he finished a 0.40-length second behind Roman Agent over 1100m.
His next outing came in the Grade 3 Cape Of Good Hope Nursery where despite finishing a 1.25-length second behind well-supported 28-10 shot One Stripe, he managed to reverse the form with Roman Agent who started favourite for the race but finished unplaced, and four lengths behind Winds Of Change.
It is also worth noting that Lion Rampart, a facile winner at Kenilworth on Tuesday, ran fourth in that race, beaten two lengths by Winds Of Change.
One Stripe has a merit rating of 106 so based on that Winds Of Change, who lost ground at the start of the Nursery, would be rated around 103.
Horses only get rated after having completed three races, so at this stage a merit rating for Winds Of Change does not reflect.
Muzi Yeni rode him in both Cape races and will be aboard again for this race.
But returning to Joburg and taking his place in a Maiden Plate, Winds Of Change does look a standout bet, although his opening price of 4-10 is not too attractive for smaller punters.
Nevertheless, it could be worth including him in a double with Kinshin Sha in Race 8, a MR 79 over 1000m.
This Lucky Houdalakis-trained runner was recently gelded and was the subject of massive betting support last time, shortening from an opening call of 25-1 to go off at 11-2. Looking the likely winner going through the final 100m, he was caught just short of the line by Stormy Seas.
Craig Zackey takes the ride this time and hopefully this three-year-old son of What A Winter can get it right this time.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 8 Winds Of Change, 3 Don't Cry For Me, 7 Sicily, 6 Serrano
Race 2: 3 Bosum Buddy, 5 Kindred Heart, 9 Scars Of War, 7 Milo's Millionaire
Race 3: 4 Namaqua Blossom, 5 Crepuscolo, 1 Out Of Your League, 6 Nuclear Force
Race 4: 9 Messalina, 1 Bilingual, 5 Sneak Preview, 3 Like A Butterfly
Race 5: 2 Elegant Ice, 7 Alabama Anna, 10 Lucy In The Sky, 3 Platina Princess
Race 6: 3 MK's Dreams, 2 Richard The First, 1 Mount Pilatus, 9 Munchkin
Race 7: 3 Miss Hannigan, 5 Northern Kitten, 10 Secret Recipe, 9 Feeling Groovy
Race 8: 4 Kinshin Sha, 1 Amber Rock, 2 Daring Act, 8 Tre Amici
Race 9: 12 Green Sceptre, 2 Eiger Sanction, 1 Copper John, 8 Gilda Gray
BEST BET
Race 1 No 8 Winds Of Change
VALUE BET
Race 9 No 12 Green Sceptre
BEST SWINGER
Race 8 1x4
BIPOT
R324
Leg 1: 3, 5, 9
Leg 2: 1, 4, 5
Leg 3: 1, 5, 9
Leg 4: 2, 7
Leg 5: 2, 3
Leg 6: 3, 5, 10
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R324
Leg 1: 1, 4, 5
Leg 2: 1, 5, 9
Leg 3: 2, 7
Leg 4: 3
Leg 5: 3, 5, 10
Leg 6: 1, 4
Leg 7: 1, 2, 12
PICK 6
R1600
Leg 1: 1, 3, 5, 9
Leg 2: 2, 3, 7, 10
Leg 3: 2, 3
Leg 4: 3, 4, 5, 9, 10
Leg 5: 1, 4
Leg 6: 1, 2, 5, 8, 12
JACKPOT 1
R80
Leg 1: 2, 3, 7, 10
Leg 2: 2, 3
Leg 3: 3, 4, 5, 9, 10
Leg 4: 1, 4
JACKPOT 2
R100
Leg 1: 2, 3
Leg 2: 3, 4, 5, 9, 10
Leg 3: 1, 4
Leg 4: 1, 2, 5, 8, 12