Jack Milner
Thursday’s card is rather interesting in that it certainly suits punters who like to back favourites.
There are short-priced runners in all but the last race so it is appears to be a meeting in which one should take inexpensive exotics a number of times.
However, if you feel the meeting will implode and produce a number of outsiders, then the other option is to go wide.
One runner who could be worth his short price is William Iron Arm in Race 6, a Progress Plate over 1800m.
This three-year-old son of William Longsword has only run five times for two wins and three third places. After his first three runs he moved across to Tony Peter’s yard and since then has contested two feature races, the Grade 2 TAB Gauteng Guineas and the Grade 1 TAB SA Classic, over 1600m and 1800m respectively.
He came back from a more than seven-month break before running in the Guineas so his 3.20-length third to Sandringham Summit was a very decent run indeed.
In the SA Classic he again finished third, this time 1.50-lengths behind Purple Pitcher with Sandringham Summit in second.
This time he takes a drop in class and comes in well weighted against another three-year-old, Barbaresco, who looks his main danger. Barbaresco finished five lengths behind William Iron Arm in the SA Classic and is now 3kg worse off.
This will be his third start after his layoff and William Iron Arm stands out as a banker in all bets.
Trois Trois Quatre has been costly to follow in recent races and there are a number of bettors who will feel trepidation at the thought of giving him yet another chance.
However, there are three factors to consider about him when he lines up in Race 7, a MR 84 Handicap over 1800m. Firstly, his merit rating has dropped a couple of points, secondly the four-year-old Rafeef gelding has won over this course and distance, and finally, and probably the most important, trainer Mike de Kock has brought in the hottest property in South Africa to ride him, Richard Fourie.
He has ridden this gelding only once, and that was in June last year when he was still a maiden and was over 1400m on the Polytrack at Hollywoodbets Greyville. They finished a 1.20-length third behind Turbo Power.
Of course, this runner has particular relevance in Fourie’s quest for the jockeys’ championship title as his name, translated from the French, is 334, the number of winners Fourie needs to break Anthony Delpech’s South African record.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 5 Mountain High, 8 Varvara, 2 Hat's Queen, 4 Key Worker
Race 2: 2 Lead The Charge, 9 Messalina, 4 Potberrie, 8 Zip Code
Race 3: 6 Master Casper, 8 Wolf Mountain, 2 Smashing, 4 Angel Wings
Race 4: 11 Scars Of War, 1 Erimitage, 2 Strewn Sky, 3 Breath Of Magic
Race 5: 10 Sneak Preview, 1 Kylie's Angel, 9 Easy On Me, 2 Sylvan Lady
Race 6: 3 William Iron Arm, 1 Barbaresco, 7 Jordan, 2 Pyromaniac
Race 7: 2 Trois Trois Quatre, 3 The Brief, 1 Slinky Mapimpi, 5 Master Ariano
Race 8: 7 Circus Lights, 3 In The Ether, 12 Empress Game, 2 Phala Millions
BEST BET
Race 6 No 3 William Iron Arm
VALUE BET
Race 8 No 7 Circus Lights
BEST SWINGER
Race 6 1x3
BIPOT
R96
Leg 1: 5, 8
Leg 2: 2, 4, 9
Leg 3: 6, 8
Leg 4: 1, 11
Leg 5: 1, 2, 9, 10
Leg 6: 3
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R144
Leg 1: 2, 9
Leg 2: 6, 8
Leg 3: 11
Leg 4: 1, 9, 10
Leg 5: 3
Leg 6: 1, 2, 3
Leg 7: 2, 3, 7, 12
PICK 6
R576
Leg 1: 6, 8
Leg 2: 1, 11
Leg 3: 1, 2, 9, 10
Leg 4: 3
Leg 5: 1, 2, 3, 5
Leg 6: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12
JACKPOT 1
R32
Leg 1: 1, 11
Leg 2: 1, 2, 9, 10
Leg 3: 3
Leg 4: 1, 2, 3, 5
JACKPOT 2
R144
Leg 1: 1, 2, 9, 10
Leg 2: 3
Leg 3: 1, 2, 3, 5
Leg 4: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12