Jack Milner
To race, or not to race. That is the question?
It has been a particularly stormy star to the new year and with more rain falling over the Highveld, Thursday’s meeting does appear to be in the balance.
Fortunately, they are racing at the Vaal on the Classic track and they might have had less rain than we have seen in Joburg.
On Wednesday the penetrometer reading at Vaal was 29, and the going soft; however, there were no waterlogged areas.
A decision regarding this meeting will be made in the morning.
If no rainfall occurs overnight, gallops will take place at approximately 7:30 am. However, should the course experience overnight rainfall, it is unlikely the meeting will proceed.
Whatever happens, one thing we do know is that the going will be soft and that will obviously play its part in the outcome.
There is no question that it is a tricky card and a damp track will exacerbate matters, but one runner could be suited to conditions and could provide a possible banker for bettors and that is Sutherland, who lines up in Race 5, a Novice Handicap over 1450m.
This lightly raced four-year-old gelding has only raced six times, finishing unplaced on debut before reeling off three solid places. He won his next race and followed that up with a one-length second behind Confederate over 1400m at the Vaal in a MR 84 Handicap after a more than two-month layoff.
The concern is that not only has he raced infrequently, but also intermittently, having had breaks between his last four runs.
That might mean this gelding has his issues but he a very well-bred individual and is a half-brother to Thunderstruck, a winner of two Grade 1 sprints.
However, he is a son of Silvano and as we are aware, they tend to improve as they get older.
Trained by Stuart Pettigrew, one of the most underrated trainers in the country, Sutherland went off at 33-1 last time when finishing second. He clearly has ability and should be a touch too good for his opposition in this race.
What is also encouraging is that this run comes just 42 days after his last course appearance, clearly breaking the pattern of longer stints between his runs.
Philasande Mxoli has ridden him in his last three races and he will be back in the irons for this race.
It would come as something of a surprise if Weiho Marwing fails to win the opening race, a Maiden Plate over 2400m.
He saddles two runners in Santiago's Pride and The Mightiest and one of them looks almost certain to take the top position – the question, however, is which one?
Both have decent form with Santiago’s Pride, the son of Futura, having finished second in a 2300m KZN Maiden Plate at Hollywoodbets Greyville last month.
However, three-year-old filly The Mightiest comes into the event as the best weighted runner and will carry just 53.5kg.
She was due to run in Race 3 last Saturday, but the race meeting was eventually abandoned and now she has landed up in this event.
The daughter of Captain Of All has yet to race over this sort of distance but she does drop in class this time and off a light weight, could prove too good for her male opposition.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 7 The Mightiest, 3 Santiago's Pride, 9 Instant Attraction, 1 Alakanani
Race 2: 5 Silent Trigger, 3 Flag Bearer, 4 Clear The Path, 9 Cartagena
Race 3: 8 Silvano's Song, 2 Quatermain, 10 Another Universe, 4 DJ Junior
Race 4: 3 Guy Alexander, 4 Primal Quest, 5 Ombudsman, 9 Copper John
Race 5: 3 Sutherland, 7 Corrupt, 6 One More Star, 4 Salute The Flag
Race 6: 3 There She Goes, 2 Micke's Bomb, 6 Take Your Place, 4 Boom Boom
Race 7: 6 Pointer, 7 Foreverinmydreams, 1 Just Be Lekker, 3 Andi's Girl
Race 8: 3 Alone Time, 1 Super Awesome, 4 Hammies Hero, 6 Sail The Sky
BEST BET
Race 1 No 7 The Mightiest
VALUE BET
Race 3 No 8 Silvano's Song
BEST SWINGER
Race 1 3x7
BIPOT
R144
Leg 1: 7
Leg 2: 3, 4, 5
Leg 3: 2, 4, 8, 10
Leg 4: 3, 4, 5
Leg 5: 3
Leg 6: 2, 3, 4, 6
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R324
Leg 1: 3, 5
Leg 2: 2, 8, 10
Leg 3: 3, 4
Leg 4: 3
Leg 5: 2, 3, 6
Leg 6: 1, 6, 7
Leg 7: 1, 3, 4
PICK 6
R1680
Leg 1: 2, 4, 8, 10
Leg 2: 3, 4, 5
Leg 3: 3
Leg 4: 2, 3, 4, 6, 8
Leg 5: 1, 3, 6, 7
Leg 6: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
JACKPOT 1
R80
Leg 1: 3, 4, 5
Leg 2: 3
Leg 3: 2, 3, 4, 6, 8
Leg 4: 1, 3, 6, 7
JACKPOT 2
R140
Leg 1: 3
Leg 2: 2, 3, 4, 6, 8
Leg 3: 1, 3, 6, 7
Leg 4: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7