Jack Milner
The Grade 2 Cape Merchants is often a tricky race because there are some runners who are not distance suited but are preparing for bigger events.
However, if racing fresh, some of them have the class to cause an upset in this 1200m race.
This year’s event is no different and there are a number of runners with winning chances at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Sunday.
However, there are a couple of horses who do have consistent form over 1200m and topping that list is Surjay, trained by Brett Crawford. The five-year-old son of Vercingetorix has not won since November last year, and since having been gelded in January, has also not finished out of the first three in his last four starts.
He also produced an encouraging comeback run after a four-month break in the Bantry Bay Stakes (Non-Black Type) over 1100m at this course last month when finishing strongly to run Thunderstruck to 0.75 lengths.
That run should have brought him on significantly and that makes him the frontrunner for top honours in this event.
The run prior to his rest saw him run a 0.20-length second behind Isivunguvungu in the Grade 1 Mercury Sprint at Hollywoodbets Greyville and that was a sensational performance.
Louie Mxothwa has been riding Surjay consistently and is back in the irons for this event.
King Regent is unquestionably a distance specialist as he has run twice over 1200m and twice over 1250m (at Durbanville) and he has won all of them.
Grant Kotzen has been having some excellent results of late and winning a Cape A Stakes over 1250m last month with this four-year-old Dynasty gelding was among them. It is worth noting that he beat hot favourite and Horse-Of-The-Year Princess Calla by 0.30 lengths in that event.
On that basis he must come into the reckoning.
Another runner of interest is Quasiforsure who made a winning return to sprinting at Greyville last time despite losing ground at the start. Peter Muscutt also trains Isivunguvungu so he knows what his charge will need to produce to win a race of this nature.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 11 Amber Rock, 8 Nile The Boss, 1 Night Vigil, 4 Lead To Glory
Race 2: 7 Prankster, 8 Tambourine Man, 5 Guarding The Wall, 15 In The Bag
Race 3: 4 French Trip, 1 Greenland, 7 Mystery Cache, 13 Kwite A King
Race 4: 10 Pomodoro's Jet, 4 Promettere, 7 Rapidash, 12 Carriacou
Race 5: 1 Caramel Fudge, 5 Right Royal Mo, 9 Call To Unite, 3 Avignon
Race 6: 2 Loreina, 6 Priceless, 8 Enchanting Choice, 4 Windrunner
Race 7: 3 Surjay, 10 King Regent, 6 Quasiforsure, 11 Cosmic Highway
Race 8: 5 Masked Vigilante, 6 War Chariot, 12 Navajo Dancer, 1 All About Al
Race 9: 3 Summer Lily, 12 Trip To Maputo, 5 Pineapplemintgreen, 7 Kamakazi
BEST BET
Race 1 No 11 Amber Rock
VALUE BET
Race 5 No 1 Caramel Fudge
BEST SWINGER
Race 9 3x12
BIPOT
R288
Leg 1: 5, 7, 8, 15
Leg 2: 1, 4
Leg 3: 4, 10
Leg 4: 1, 5, 9
Leg 5: 2, 6
Leg 6: 3, 6, 10
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R288
Leg 1: 1, 4
Leg 2: 4, 10
Leg 3: 1, 5, 9
Leg 4: 2, 6
Leg 5: 3, 10
Leg 6: 5, 6, 12
Leg 7: 3, 12
PICK 6
R2560
Leg 1: 4, 7, 10, 12
Leg 2: 1, 2, 3, 5, 9
Leg 3: 2, 4, 6, 8
Leg 4: 3, 6, 10, 11
Leg 5: 1, 5, 6, 12
Leg 6: 3, 12
JACKPOT 1
R320
Leg 1: 1, 2, 3, 5, 9
Leg 2: 2, 4, 6, 8
Leg 3: 3, 6, 10, 11
Leg 4: 1, 5, 6, 12
JACKPOT 2
R128
Leg 1: 2, 4, 6, 8
Leg 2: 3, 6, 10, 11
Leg 3: 1, 5, 6, 12
Leg 3: 3, 12