Jack Milner
There is a joke about the definition of statistics that it is the only science where two recognised experts, using exactly the same data, may come to completely opposite conclusions.
That sort of rationalisation applies strongly in horseracing as two people study the identical Computaform and come up with different winners.
So, the best we can do is lay down our arguments and explain the rationale of how we reached our conclusion, then it is up to reader or listener to decide whether we are right or wrong.
On that basis, I am going to explain why I make Zeus a hard horse to beat in Race 5 at Turffontein on Saturday, a Pinnacle Stakes over 2400m on the Standside track.
Here are the statistics available.
Firstly, under the race conditions Zeus is at least 1kg better weighted than any of his opposition.
Secondly, he has had 18 runs on the track for four wins and four places, however, he has had six runs over the course and distance, winning three and running third twice.
His form over 2400m reads; five wins and three places from nine runs.
The next thing we look at is his relationship with the jockey. Gavin Lerena has ridden him 18 times for 10 wins, one second, two thirds and a fourth – and finally, perhaps the stat that puts this over the edge – Trainer Fabian Habib’s charge has won 10 races. That means Lerena is the only jockey who has been able to win a race aboard the six-year gelding.
Lerena will be back on board for this event and based on all that information Zeus is a comfortable pick to win it.
That’s the case for Zeus, although some could see Raiseahallelujah winning this. He runs well for Muzi Yeni who has ridden him twice for a win, in which he beat Zeus, and a second place which was in the Grade 3 Lonsdale Stirrup Cup at Hollywoodbets Greyville.
But the opposing argument is that Raiseahallelujah’s victory was over 2600m on the Inside track, was by 0.20 lengths and Zeus is 2kg better off this time.
So, that’s the case for the defence, now it’s up to the punter to judge.
Interestingly, Richard Fourie has chosen to ride at Turffontein and not HWB Kenilworth, and he should pick up some rides early on the card.
Race 1 is a Juveniles Plate over 1000m and it will be interesting to see if one of the easy debut winners, either Easy Tiger or Glastonbury, can repeat their earlier successes.
Mike and Mathew de Kock have their yard in good form and Easy Tiger impressed on her debut. The Rafeef filly was a few lengths off the initial early pace but quickened up nicely in the last 200m of the race to score easily. She found betting support on that debut, so must be showing something at home.
This is one of Fourie’s key rides and looks to be the best bet on the card.
In Race 2, a Graduation Plate over 1160m, Mike and Adam Azzie send out Winds Of Change to try and follow up on his easy maiden win last month.
He has run decent races in feature events so should have a few more wins in his tank.
The What A Winter colt is a half-brother to Safe Passage and Silver Sanctuary but while they have both proved to be at their best over middle distances, this three-year-old colt appears to be a sprinter at this stage of his career.
This looks to be another good ride for Lerena.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 2 Easy Tiger, 1 Caroline Island, 3 Glastonbury, 7 Queen's Pact
Race 2: 4 Winds Of Change, 1 Grand Crescendo, 2 The Specialist, 3 Kia Kaha
Race 3: 3 Up The Ante, 1 Mountain High, 11 Hollywood Madam, 2 The Mightiest
Race 4: 4 Apache Chief, 3 Spy Story, 1 Spirito Selvaggio, 5 Sovereign Crown
Race 5: 1 Zeus, 3 Raiseahallelujah, 2 Crimson King, 4 Marauding Horde
Race 6: 3 Let's Go Now, 1 Beating Wings, 4 Willy Meet Again, 6 Happy Mo
Race 7: 4 Potberrie, 5 Francine, 6 Miss Hannigan, 2 Lead The Charge
Race 8: 5 Glawari, 4 Pretty Precious, 2 Warm Winter Nite, 3 Sakhala Is'Cathulo
BEST BET
Race 1: 2 Easy Tiger
VALUE BET
Race 8: 5 Glawari
BEST SWINGER
Race 6 1x3
BIPOT
R96
Leg 1: 2
Leg 2: 1, 4
Leg 3: 1, 3
Leg 4: 1, 3, 4, 5
Leg 5: 1, 2, 3
Leg 6: 1, 3
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R216
Leg 1: 4
Leg 2: 1, 3
Leg 3: 1, 3, 4
Leg 4: 1, 3
Leg 5: 1, 3
Leg 6: 4, 5, 6
Leg 7: 2, 4, 5
PICK 6
R1944
Leg 1: 1, 3, 11
Leg 2: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Leg 3: 1, 2, 3
Leg 4: 1, 3
Leg 5: 4, 5, 6
Leg 6: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
JACKPOT 1
R108
Leg 1: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Leg 2: 1, 2, 3
Leg 3: 1, 3
Leg 4: 4, 5, 6
JACKPOT 2
R108
Leg 1: 1, 2, 3
Leg 2: 1, 3
Leg 3: 4, 5, 6
Leg 4: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6