Sophomore stats a conundrum for punters

Danie Toerien

Statistically speaking, the World Sports Betting Sophomore 1000 (Race 6) should be the easiest race in which to find the winner, as only eight runners are carded to go to post in this event at the Vaal tomorrow.

But as Mark Twain wrote in Chapters from My Autobiography, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

Problem is, Twain attributes this now popular saying to British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli, but without any record thereof, even the most famous quote regarding statistics seems rather suspect.

With that said, it is rather interesting to study some of the statistics of the eight contenders in the World Sports Betting Sophomore 1000.

First off, a look at their early success compared to their current strike rate, tells a very interesting story. As juveniles, the eight runners ran a combined total of 40 races, recording 12 victories for a win strike rate of 30%.

However, since turning three, their combined runs total 25, with only a solitary victory between them for a win strike rate of just 4%.

That solitary win was scored by Now I Got You, who is one of only two runners not to have tasted success as a juvenile - the other being Mighty Goddess, who is still a maiden.

Trained by Corrie Lensley, Now I Got You is the highest rated and best weighted runner in the Sophomore field – a statistic which carries weight no matter from which angle it is perceived.

As far as place finishes are concerned since the start of the season, the statistics show that it is indeed the maiden, Mighty Goddess, who leads the pack. Billy Ruiters’ charge has finished in the top three on four of five occasions, which includes a hat-trick of runner-up finishes in her last three outings.

Considering that Mighty Goddess has run with merit in the company of Grade 2 winners Maharanee and Gobsmacked, as well as Grade 1 winner Sweet Pepper, she shouldn’t be left out of any equation when exotic bets are permuted.

Another interesting statistic which warrants attention is that the Fanie Bronkhorst-trained Strike A Match and jockey Chase Maujean is the only jockey-horse combination in the field to have scored a victory when pairing up - and they did it twice from four runs.

Unfortunately for Strike A Match, she is also the runner with the worst record when it comes to combined lengths beaten in the last two runs. She trudged home a combined 18.50-lengths behind the leaders in her last two outings – and both times Maujean was in the saddle too.

Bettors interested in more statistics must note that the Computaform form guide is available for free online at https://www.tab4racing.com. It contains a wealth of information and statistics to help bettors make the best-informed decisions.

The betting offered by World Sports Betting yesterday is: 3-1 Karangetang, Set To Go; 15-4 Taikonaut; 4-1 Now I Got You; 10-1 River Queraress; 13-1 Mover And Shaker; 14-1 Mighty Goddess; 20-1 Strike A Match.