Jack Milner
An interesting fact about the Grade 1 Cape Derby is that last three winners have all gone on to start favourite for the Hollywoodbets Durban July a few months later.
They were See It Again (2023), Green With Envy (2024) and Eight On Eighteen (2025), and while none of them managed to win the country’s biggest handicap, it does highlight the relevance of the Cape Derby and the expectations that will face the eight runners who will be lining up in Saturday’s Lucky Fish-sponsored race over 2000m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth.
It might be a controversial comment but perhaps this year’s field is not as strong as in the previous three years. Last year Eight On Eighteen had won the WSB Cape Met while Green With Envy had captured the Grade 3 Politician Stakes carrying top weights.
Also of relevance is that all three went on to win the Grade 1 Daily News 2000 at HWB Greyville before going into the Durban July.
The question is, will any of this year’s contenders be able to emulate that feat.
There are three runners who are still a little under-exposed and they are Wish List, Note To Self and Viva’s Liberte. Starting with Justin Snaith-trained Note To Self who put up a startling performance last time to score a runaway win over this course and distance on Cape Town Met day.
Prior to the meeting, in a chat with Andrew Fortune, he commented that the son of Futura was still maturing and rated him highly. He added that he has the qualities to win the Daily News.
On that basis this underrated gelding should not be underestimated.
However, we have had a thought-provoking “jockey exchange”. Richard Fourie was slated to ride Note To Self while Fortune opted for Wish List. However, once Fortune was unable to ride the filly, Fourie was quick to jump ship and Grant van Niekerk now has the ride.
So that does indicate that at this particular moment, she is the better of the two. There are a couple of obvious reasons for that. Firstly, she already has chalked up a Grade 1 victory and that was in the Grade 1 Paddock Stakes over 1800m.
In addition, with her 2.5kg sex allowance, she comes into this race as the best weighted runner by at least 3kg. There is also little doubt based on her breeding, by Legislate, himself a winner of this race, out of a Silvano mare, she will love this distance.
So that does make her the runner to beat.
However, playing devil’s advocate, she beat Reet Petite by 0.50 lengths, both carrying 54kg, and what price would she go off if she was to run in this race?
Then we come to Viva’s Liberte. The Candice Bass-trained runner is clearly not short of ability and in his four runs to date and has notched up two wins and two fourth places. He was gelded after his third run and did not perform badly when finishing a 1.80-length fourth behind Stormwatch over 1400m.
This son of Vercingetorix could be way better than his merit rating of 95 may suggest. The stable is in form and with log-leading jockey Craig Zackey in the irons, he could be the surprise package of the race.
Others one needs to consider are Grade 3 Politician Stakes first and second, James Crawford-trained Star Major who has Louie Mxothwa in the irons and Snaith’s charge Happy Verse with Gavin Lerena up.
There is also a R500,000 Pick 6 carryover at the meeting with the pool likely to reach R3 million.
It could be tough to find a Pick 6 banker but we all know that these days when Alan Greeff brings a runner from the Eastern Cape, one needs to stand up and take notice.
On this occasion he has brought rampant debut winner Casperita to contest the Grade 3 Ridgemont Cape Of Good Hope Nursery over 1000m and with her sex allowance and Fourie in the irons, she could prove very hard to peg back.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 4 Hurricane Paige, 7 Nobody's Perfect, 2 Grapes Of Wrath, 3 De Gulden
Race 2: 5 Eric Liddell, 2 Landoftherisingsun, 3 Lavender Bay, 1 Tenpenny
Race 3: 6 Phantom Man, 3 Spanish Verse, 11 I Am Sam, 4 Whatwillbewillbe
Race 4: 1 Casperita, 8 World Series, 5 Red Spice, 7 Querari Dancer
Race 5: 2 Beach Verse, 7 Kattekwaadkwadraad, 1 Queen Regent, 6 Ukuduma
Race 6: 1 Swiatek, 5 Princess Of Gaul, 6 Viva La Vida, 3 Roccapina
Race 7: 13 All The Rage, 3 Questioning, 2 Outlaw King, 8 I Am Giant
Race 8: 2 Wish List, 5 Note To Self, 7 Viva's Liberte, 1 Star Major
Race 9: 4 Zeitz, 7 Snow Pilot, 6 Sugar Mountain, 10 Jet Force
Race 10: 1 Prince Of Tibet, 5 Midway, 2 Trip To Camelot, 4 Double Distilled
BEST BET
Race 4: 1 Casperita
VALUE BET
Race 6: 1 Swiatek
BEST SWINGER
Race 10 1x5
BIPOT
R324
Leg 1: 2, 3, 5
Leg 2: 3, 6, 10, 11
Leg 3: 1
Leg 4: 1, 2, 7
Leg 5: 1, 5, 6
Leg 6: 2, 3, 12
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R243
Leg 1: 3, 6, 11
Leg 2: 1
Leg 3: 1, 2, 7
Leg 4: 1, 5, 6
Leg 5: 2, 3, 13
Leg 6: 2
Leg 7: 4, 6, 7
PICK 6
R1200
Leg 1: 1
Leg 2: 1, 2, 6, 7
Leg 3: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6
Leg 4: 2, 3, 8, 13
Leg 5: 2, 5, 7
Leg 6: 4, 6, 7, 8, 10
JACKPOT 1
R240
Leg 1: 1, 2, 6, 7
Leg 2: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6
Leg 3: 2, 3, 8, 13
Leg 4: 2, 5, 7
JACKPOT 2
R120
Leg 1: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6
Leg 2: 2, 3, 8, 13
Leg 3: 2, 5, 7
Leg 4: 4, 6, 7, 8, 10