The numbers point to Shavout finally being able to notch up his second career victory when he runs in Race 4 at Hollywoodbets Scottsville on Sunday.
In his last four starts the MJ Odendaal-trained has finished third, third, second and second – in that order. Following the arithmetic progression, that means he should lead the field home when he contests this MR 86 Handicap over 1950m.
But mathematics aside, Shavout does have the form to win a race of this nature. He was strongly fancied to win his last start over 1800m on the turf at Greyville but overraced from the off, ended up in front and was caught late.
There are two other items in his favour. Firstly, this will be his third run after a layoff and secondly, the four-year-old Elusive Fort gelding takes a large drop in class. The average merit rating in his last race was 84, this time it is 71.
As one so often discovers on a Scottsville card, finding bankers is not easy and Shavout, who will be ridden by Marco van Rensburg, could fill that role.
Bettors can get off to a good start with Ancient Epic who stands out in Race 1, a Maiden Plate for fillies and mares over 1000m.
The Vercingetorix filly turned in two promising efforts, one on the Polytrack at Greyville and then one at this venue on the turf. But in her third run she was not happy and played up at the start.
She is best forgiven that run and now having drawn in pole position she should make them all run.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 1 Ancient Epic, 11 Namaqua Dove, 7 Leopard Lady, 3 Mezzyoona
Race 2: 3 The Brief, 2 Master Keeku, 8 Proud Master, 11 Forest Phoenix
Race 3: 2 Geronimo, 1 Venerable, 8 Napoleon, 11 Lake Como
Race 4: 3 Shavout, 8 Time Taker, 1 Savannah Buddy, 6 Querari’s Cowboy
Race 5: 3 The Bayou, 5 Love The View, 6 African Skyline, 1 Teichman
Race 6: 10 Humdinger, 1 Maidens Prayer, 7 Umkhomazi, 2 Tango Time
Race 7: 10 Sav’s Star, 2 Danse Milord, 4 Kitten’s Adventure, 5 Diamonds ‘N Dust
Race 8: 13 So Var, 8 Who’s That Star, 11 Purple And Green, 10 Camora
BEST BET
Race 4 No 3 Shavout
VALUE BET
Race 6 No 10 Humdinger
BEST SWINGER
Race 4 3×8
BIPOT
R324
Leg 1: 1, 7, 11
Leg 2: 2, 3, 8, 11
Leg 3: 1, 2, 8
Leg 4: 3
Leg 5: 3, 5, 6
Leg 6: 1, 7, 10
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R432
Leg 1: 2, 3, 8
Leg 2: 1, 2
Leg 3: 3
Leg 4: 3, 5, 6
Leg 5: 1, 10
Leg 6: 2, 4, 10
Leg 7: 8, 10, 11, 13
PICK 6
R1500
Leg 1: 1, 2, 8, 11, 13
Leg 2: 3
Leg 3: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6
Leg 4: 1, 2, 7, 10
Leg 5: 2, 4, 10
Leg 6: 8, 7, 10, 11, 13
JACKPOT 1
R60
Leg 1: 3
Leg 2: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6
Leg 3: 1, 2, 7, 10
Leg 4: 2, 4, 10
JACKPOT 2
R300
Leg 1: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6
Leg 2: 1, 2, 7, 10
Leg 3: 2, 4, 10
Leg 4: 8, 7, 10, 11, 13