Jack Milner: Say When cruised to victory last time and is expected to follow up on the Vaal Classic track on Tuesday.
Many years back a shrewd horseracing pundit warned against backing maiden winners in their next start.
He had spent years preparing a set of statistics which guided him on how he should bet, and this was one statistic about which he was adamant – with one proviso.
If that maiden wins by five lengths or further, their odds of a follow-up victory increase markedly.
With that advice in mind, a bet on Say When in Race 8 at the Vaal on Tuesday, looks worthwhile. Johan Janse van Vuuren’s charge lines up in a MR 76 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1450m on the Classic track and she will be looking to double up, following a runaway 9.25-length victory over Danceaboutthesun on the Turffontein Inside track, also over 1450m.
That win was certainly no flash in the pan. Prior to that she had notched up three successive seconds so when it came to her fourth run, the daughter of Silvano went off at 9-10 to crack her maiden.
Say When is a full sister to Candice Dawson-trained Smoking Hot, a three-time winner from 10 starts.
Dawson could be in line for a good day as she has some competitive runners at the meeting. She sends out Raisetheredlantern in Race 1, who should finally end his run of three seconds under work rider Joe Gwingwizha.
In Race 3 Ballet Shoes has to be a live runner in this Pinnacle Stakes over 1800m, but a lot will depend on the mood in which she finds Paul Peter-trained Jet Start. The latter seems to enjoy the handling of apprentice Philasande Mxoli who has won both start on the mare – and she has the benefit of his 2.5kg allowance.
Dawson and Peter also go head-to-head in Race 7 with Little Rain and Way Of The World respectively but perhaps Kennedy having just 52.5kg on the back of Dawson’s charge will give them the edge.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 1 Raisetheredlantern, 4 Ace Of Spades, 2 Love Lies, 5 Wisden
Race 2: 2 Dalgety Bay, 9 Magic Choice, 1 Country Mile, 5 Sky Kingdom
Race 3: 1 Jet Start, 2 Ballet Shoes, 3 Shivers, 5 Sunshine Silk
Race 4: 9 Diamonds N Dollars, 10 Just Judy, 6 Amberglo Star
Race 5: 3 Eskimo Pie, 1 Riccardo, 2 Mcebisi, 7 Sergei
Race 6: 7 Atomic Blonde, 5 Waqaas, 10 Forever Light, 9 Storm Commander
Race 7: 7 Little Rain, 2 Way Of The World, 1 Kayla’s Champ, 6 Flaming Duchess
Race 8: 5 Say When, 9 Readysetglo, 1 Capitiana, 10 Fantasy Flower
BEST BET
Race 8 No 5 Say When
VALUE BET
Race 6 No 7 Atomic Blonde
BEST SWINGER
Race 7 2×7
BIPOT
R216
Leg 1: 1
Leg 2: 1, 2, 9
Leg 3: 1, 2
Leg 4: 6, 9, 10
Leg 5: 1, 2, 3
Leg 6: 5, 7, 9, 10
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R216
Leg 1: 1, 2, 9
Leg 2: 1, 2
Leg 3: 9, 10
Leg 4: 1, 2, 3
Leg 5: 5, 7, 10
Leg 6: 2, 7
Leg 7: 5
PICK 6
R630
Leg 1: 1, 2, 3
Leg 2: 6, 9, 10
Leg 3: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7
Leg 4: 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Leg 5: 2, 7
Leg 6: 5
JACKPOT 1
R210
Leg 1: 6, 9, 10
Leg 2: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7
Leg 3: 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Leg 4: 2, 7
JACKPOT 2
R70
Leg 3: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7
Leg 4: 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Leg 5: 2, 7
Leg 6: 5