Jack Milner
There are times when finding a best bet at a race meeting is no easy task and one has to look at other devices that are not purely based on form to give some answers.
That is certainly the case with Thursday’s card at Turffontein where they race on the Inside track.
So, with that on mind, one of the most in form jockeys in the country right now is Gavin Lerena while trainer Fanie Bronkhorst is also going through a somewhat purple patch.
They team up with three horses on the day but the one that really catches the eye is Red Carpet Girl in Race 8, a MR 64 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1200m.
Most pundits would consider it almost insane to go for a runner contesting a lowly rated fillies and mares handicap but there is a lot to like about this five-year-old daughter of Pomodoro right now.
After winning her third career start in a race over 1160m on the Standside Turffontein track in February, Red Carpet Girl has continued to show good form.
Her next two starts were over 1000m, a distance that is probably a touch sharp for her these days. In the first she produced the fastest last 400m to finish a 0.85-length third behind Nkandla Gold but was probably suited to the yielding going that day.
Next time she did find the trip a touch sharp, finishing fifth, but beaten just 3.25 lengths by Simply Magic.
In her last start, this time over 1200m on the Vaal Classic track, Red Carpet Girl did well to run another third place, this time 1.25 lengths behind Peace Of Mind.
She does have some reasonable form on this track and although failing to win to record a victory, she has run a third and a fourth place in three runs over track and trip.
Most importantly, this is the first time Lerena takes the ride, and they have the benefit of jumping from a decent No 5 draw.
The main threat has to be Lady Elliot from the Roy Magner yard. Raymond Danielson is carded to take the ride and they are drawn alongside Red Carpet Girl in barrier No 4.
However, she will have to give 3kg to Bronkhorst’s runner and that could be a daunting task.
Lady Elliot is also untried on the Inside track.
Bronkhorst also has a particularly strong winning chance early on the card and should get the ball rolling in Race 1 with two-year-old filly Messalina over 1500m.
This daughter of Querari has acquitted herself competitively in maiden races against other juveniles and older rivals. She should, however, find a Work Riders' Maiden Handicap an easier assignment under the accomplished Siyabonga Mkhumbuzi, who finished second in a Work Riders' maiden last week.
Messalina maintained her form with another creditable showing over 1600m seven days ago when finishing fourth, beaten 5.35-lengths on the Inside track in open company. A repeat of that performance is likely to be good enough to shed her maiden tag.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 3 Messalina, 2 Chicago Lass, 1 Ambitious Lady, 6 Gloria Mundi
Race 2: 4 Fennec Fox, 7 Inafix, 3 Pendragon, 5 Life Goes On
Race 3: 2 Mo Ment, 1 Breath Of Magic, 8 Lightinthestorm, 3 Roll Of The Dice
Race 4: 7 Kittyboys Girl, 1 Gimme The Flame, 3 Linganomore, 2 Visionofpeace
Race 5: 4 Thambi, 14 Guy Alexander, 7 Fifth Of July, 11 Gilda Gray
Race 6: 7 Nuclear Force, 3 Battleofbarberton, 4 Royal Mazarin, 5 Kakiebos
Race 7: 8 Southern Style, 1 Sparkling Jubilee, 5 Cerulean Dancer, 3 After Hours
Race 8: 5 Red Carpet Girl, 1 Lady Elliot, 6 Time Is Ticking, 7 Twice As Wild
BEST BET
Race 8: 5 Red Carpet Girl
VALUE BET
Race 5: 4 Thambi
BEST SWINGER
Race 3 1x2
BIPOT
R324
Leg 1: 1, 2, 3
Leg 2: 3, 4, 7
Leg 3: 1, 2
Leg 4: 1, 3, 7
Leg 5: 4, 7, 14
Leg 6: 3, 7
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R324
Leg 1: 3, 4, 7
Leg 2: 1, 2
Leg 3: 1, 3, 7
Leg 4: 4, 7, 13
Leg 5: 3, 7
Leg 6: 1, 5, 8
Leg 7: 5
PICK 6
R1200
Leg 1: 1, 2, 8
Leg 2: 1, 2, 3, 7
Leg 3: 3, 4, 7, 11, 14
Leg 4: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Leg 5: 1, 3, 5, 8
Leg 6: 5
JACKPOT 1
R400
Leg 1: 1, 2, 3, 7
Leg 2: 3, 4, 7, 11, 14
Leg 3: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Leg 4: 1, 3, 5, 8
JACKPOT 2
R100
Leg 1: 3, 4, 7, 11, 14
Leg 2: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Leg 3: 1, 3, 5, 8
Leg 4: 5