Ed Marnane’s horse-by-horse guide to the $12-million Dubai World Cup at Meydan Racecourse on Saturday.
Clapton
Useful US gelding, rated 111 and has won six of his 27 races. He has had his limitations exposed at the highest level and has plenty to find in this company. Well held by the reopposing Kabirkhan and Military Law on his last two starts, the most recent in the Al Maktoum Classic when finishing a one-paced third after a sluggish start. He faces a stiff task and is readily dismissed.
Crupi
A progressive colt, winning two of his last three races and hails from a top US stable and has the services of Luis Saez, who won the 2021 Dubai World Cup aboard Mystic Guide. He finished a respectable third behind National Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup, a career-high. The runner-up (Senor Buscador) gave the form a timely boost when winning the Saudi Cup five weeks ago. By Curlin, a top US dirt sire and Dubai World Cup winner, he has each-way claims at big odds as open to improvement going up in a distance.
Defunded
A two-time Grade 1 winner for Bob Baffert in the US, he failed to make an impression in the Saudi Cup, trailing in a seventh under Luis Saez on his debut for new trainer Abdulaziz K Mishref. He should been sharper for that run as he was coming off a 146-day break. He needs to rediscover his best form to make an impact, while Saez has jumped off to ride Crupi.
Derma Sotogake
Created a big impression winning the UAE Derby 12 months ago, travelling powerfully and always in command en-route to an impressive victory. The Japanese colt rounded off 2023 when running well in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, off six month break, only finding White Abarrio a length to strong. Shaped nicely in the Saudi Cup last month when keeping on to finish a creditable fifth behind surprise winner Senor Buscador, beaten less than three lengths, on his first start of the year. He’s entitled to improve for his comeback and holds leading claims.
Dura Erede
Returns to Meydan since running second to Derma Sotogake in last year’s UAE Derby. The four-year-old can boast form at the highest level on dirt in Japan, finishing third in the Tokyo Daishoten and Champions Cup behind Ushba Tesoro and Lemon Pop respectively. He has a poor win strike-rate and is winless since landing the Hopeful Stakes (Grade 1) 15 months ago. Dura Erede has something to prove now on his most recent appearance in last month’s February Stakes, when beaten seven lengths.
Kabirkhan
The pick of the home challenge. Doug Watson’s stable star has thrived since joining Red Stables in the Emirates, impressing in a handicap before bolting up in the Al Maktoum Challenge, a first Group 1 success. By the 2016 Dubai World Cup winner and US Horse of the Year California Chrome, he is a strong-travelling colt, with a sharp turn of foot and is unbeaten at Meydan. He comes here a fresh horse having not been seen for two months. He’s a major player.
Laurel River
A useful performer for Bob Baffert in the US, he bounced back from a poor run in the Al Shindagha Sprint, off a lengthy layoff, on his first run for Dubai-based trainer Bhupat Seemar when winning the Burj Nahaar, overcoming a wide draw when making the running having shown bags of early speed. The step up in distance from a mile to 2000m is an obvious query and it is a bold decision by connections to target the race, as Godolphin Mile looked a more suitable race. Will find it hard to dominate his rivals and with stamina doubts, he makes no appeal.
Military Law
The oldest horse in the field comes here in good order, winning the Al Maktoum Classic, a race Thunder Snow won en-route to Dubai World Cup glory in 2018. Now nine, he found plenty for pressure to get the better of the reluctant looking Walk Of Stars and 11 others when registering his third victory on Meydan’s dirt track four weeks ago. He’s hard to fancy and will struggle stepping up in class.
Newgate
Trained by Bob Baffert, a four-time Dubai World Cup winner, he was battling winner of the Santa Anita Handicap, his first Grade 1 success. Newgate, winner of three of his ten races, is a consistent, lightly-raced colt and remains open to further improvement. Frankie Dettori, chasing a record fifth Dubai World Cup, rides Newgate and with conditions in his favour, he is one to consider in an open looking contest.
Senor Buscader
Caused a minor surprise in the Saudi Cup, when delivered fast and late by Junior Alvarado to nail Ushba Senor in the final strides in a dramatic finish. He relished the strong pace and long straight of Riyadh, so stepping up to 2000m here is a bonus. He had a tough race in Saudi Arabian and backing up in 35 days isn’t ideal, as he bids to become the first horse to pull off the Saudi Cup/Dubai World Cup double in history.
Ushba Tesoro
Last year’s winner returns to defend his crown and comes here on the back of a heartbreaking defeat in the Saudi Cup, just failing to see off the late burst of Senor Buscador in a thrilling finish. Ushba Tesoro, a multiple Group/Grade 1 winner, is a reliable and consistent performer, highly effective on dirt and should go close. He stayed on strongly when defeating Algiers 12 months ago and will require a strong pace to bring his stamina into play. He sets the standard and looks the one to beat.
Wilson Tesoro
Winner of seven of his 15 races in Japan, he suffered a serious injury on his racecourse debut (on turf) but made a full recovery and has since thrived when switched to dirt. He chased home Lemon Pop in the Champions Cup (Grade 1) in December before splitting Ushba Tesoro and Dura Erede in the Grade 1 Tokyo Daishoten 26 days later, arguably a personal-best. The five-year-old needs to discover his best form, having disappointed in the February Stakes last month, when soundly beaten behind shock winner Peptide Nile. Wilson Tesoro should not be overlooked if back to his best.