Jack Milner
The well-hammered debate on the comparison between three-year-olds and their elders has come to the fore again ahead of Saturday’s R5-million Hollywoodbets Durban July over 2200m at Hollywoodbets Greyville.
At this stage most of the three-year-olds have been running against one another with only the Cape Town Met and the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate giving away a couple of clues.
Mike de Kock has two of the three-year-olds in Safe Passage and Aragosta, Justin Snaith sends out Pomp And Power, Joe Soma has Red Saxon, Brett Crawford sends out Zapatillas and Dean Kannemeyer saddles Waterberry Lane.
The De Kock, Snaith and Soma’s runners are all Grade 1 winners while the others have also captured features in their age groups. However, Pomp And Power is the only one who has taken on older horses in Grade 1 company.
There will be different interpretations to his 3.05-length fifth behind Jet Dark in the Queen’s Plate but whichever way you look at it, it doesn’t reveal much.
De Kock pointed out in an interview that last year three-year-olds filled the first three places with only Do It Again claiming anything for the older horses. But he added: “How good are the older horses?”
Both Kommetdieding and Linebacker, first and second in 2021, carry 7kg and 5.5kg respectively more than last year. Have they made that level of improvement in a year?
These are the questions bettors will need to answer for themselves in what could be the most open and competitive Durban July in years.
If you put it all together and study the form, there is one three-year-old who really stands out, and that is Safe Passage. He has beaten almost all the three-year-olds in Joburg, the one blip on his radar being his defeat by Red Saxon in the Grade 1 SA Classic. He took ill shortly after that and had to be pulled out of the SA Derby so there is a possibility the son of Silvano could have been incubating the disease at the time of the Classic.
But he settled matters in no uncertain terms in the Grade 1 Daily News 2000 where he beat the best of Joburg and Cape Town in a race both trainer and jockey Muzi Yeni did not expect to win.
Using second-placed Pomp And Power as the line horse the handicappers did raise his merit rating and as a result Safe Passage will now have to carry 1.5kg more than the other three-year-olds.
Strangely enough, that does not bother Yeni. “I would rather have a class horse who has beaten the other horses. The Daily News is in the bag and honestly, he is much better now. He won’t have a problem carrying the extra 1.5kg,” he said on Wednesday.
One can argue Pomp And Power did not run to his best on that occasion but by the same token Safe Passage will also make great strides and he is selected to give Yeni his first Durban July winner and De Kock his fifth.
Kommetdieding may not have performed to his best in Joburg but trainer Michelle Rix confirmed her charge had turned the corner since arriving in KwaZulu-Natal. “I can’t really explain what went wrong. There was nothing physically wrong with him, maybe it was the altitude, but it just wasn’t for him.
“We’ve now got the old ‘Kommet’ back.
“From our perspective in comparison to what he was like last year, he is physically stronger and mentally far more mature.”
One must not forget that he also went on to win the Cape Town Met, so he has earned his weight.
There has not been much between Linebacker and Kommetdieding in most of their runs together and wherever one of them finishes, the other won’t be far behind.
Linebacker gets 1.5kg from Kommetdieding this time and trainer Vaughan Marshall feels his charge has improved in blinkers. “Everything has gone well. All we need is that one thing called luck,” said Marshall yesterday.
Do It Again has a remarkable record in this race, having run four times for two wins, a third and a fourth. Should he prevail, the seven-year-old would become the first horse to win it three times and the oldest winner in many years.
He cannot be ignored, and with his lighter weight this time he is definitely one for the Quartet.
One can make a case for most of the field and it was tough to cut it down to four, but all of Pomp And Power, Aragosta, Sparkling Water, Jet Dark and Zapatillas have to be included in Exotic bets.
And it doesn’t end there.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 4 Clean Living, 8 Canadian Summer, 1 Butterfly Beauty, 7 Miss Daisy
Race 2: 2 Now I Got You, 10 Taikonaut, 12 Pure Maverick, 1 Thymetoshine
Race 3: 11 Airways Law, 3 Flying Bull, 10 One Way Traffic, 6 Shango
Race 4: 8 Black Thorn, 4 Salvator Mundi, 1 Smoking Hot, 6 Imperial Ruby
Race 5: 9 Maharanee, 4 Sweet Pepper, 7 Ameena, 3 Bevies Delight
Race 6: 2 Miss Cool, 7 Grinkov, 1 Imposing, 13 Prophet
Race 7: 10 Safe Passage, 13 Kommetdieding, 4 Linebacker, 2 Do It Again
Race 8: 8 Captain's Ransom, 3 Under Your Spell, 9 Supreme Quest, 4 Zarina
Race 9: 1 Coin Spinner, 12 William Robertson, 9 Eden Roc, 2 Vars Vicky
Race 10: 2 Indlamu, 7 Warrior, 6 Xavion, 11 Gentleman's Wager
Race 11: 1 Grimaldi, 3 Sunday Island, 5 Willow's Wish, 2 Conquer The Enemy
Race 12: 5 My Cherie Amour, 10 Mel's Princess, 7 Just Be Nice, 6 Angel Of Justice
BEST BET
Race 2 No 2 Now I Got You
VALUE BET
Race 6 No 2 Miss Cool
BEST SWINGER
Race 5 4x9
BIPOT 1
R144
Leg 1: 2
Leg 2: 3, 6, 10
Leg 3: 4, 8
Leg 4: 4, 9
Leg 5: 1, 2, 7, 13
Leg 6: 4, 10, 13
BIPOT 2
R135
Leg 1: 4, 10, 13
Leg 2: 8
Leg 3: 1, 9, 12
Leg 4: 2, 6, 7
Leg 5: 1
Leg 6: 5, 6, 7, 10, 11
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R216
Leg 1: 3, 10
Leg 2: 4, 8
Leg 3: 4, 9
Leg 4: 1, 2, 7
Leg 5: 4, 10, 13
Leg 6: 8
Leg 7: 1, 9, 12
PICK 6
R1280
Leg 1: 1, 4, 6, 8
Leg 2: 4, 9
Leg 3: 1, 2, 4, 7, 13
Leg 4: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 10, 12, 13
Leg 5: 8
Leg 6: 1, 2, 9, 12
JACKPOT 1
R60
Leg 1: 1, 4, 8
Leg 2: 2
Leg 3: 1, 3, 6, 8, 10
Leg 4: 1, 4, 6, 8
JACKPOT 2
R80
Leg 1: 4, 9
Leg 2: 1, 2, 4, 7, 13
Leg 3: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 10, 12, 13
Leg 4: 8
JACKPOT 3
R144
Leg 1: 1, 2, 9, 12
Leg 2: 2, 6, 7, 11
Leg 3: 1
Leg 4: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11
PICTURE: GOLD CIRCLE/CANDIESE LENFERNA