Favourite or Float?
Punting Strategies for the July Quartet
There’s a R15-million TAB Pick 6 expected at Saturday’s Hollywoodbets Durban July meeting, but the TAB Quartet pool on the big race won’t be far behind. It’s become a favourite flutter for punters chasing a big score on the day, and the kitty could swell to R10 million or more.
Above: Pomodoro and Smanjemanje: the duo that broke the bank in 2012 (Image: Gold Circle/Race Coast)
There have been three whopping Durban July Quartet dividends in the last 15 years. The biggest was posted in 2012, when the return was just over R300,000 after Pomodoro (28-1) had beaten Smanjemanje (55-1), Chesalon (18-1) and Eaton Square (40-1). The tote favourite, Jackson (9-5), finished unplaced.
In 2015, outsider Power King (28-1), defeated Punta Arenas (28-1), Tellina (25-1) and Futura (9-2). On this day the favourite Legal Eagle (33-10) missed the board. The return was R82,066. Then, in 2016, there was a R152,149 payout following the victory of The Conglomerate (18-1) over Marinaresco (14-1), Mac De Lago (40-1) and It’s My Turn (7-1). Bela-Bela, the 11-2 favourite, finished sixth.
More recently, the bet showed a R20,984 yield in 2022, when Sparkling Water (16-1) beat Jet Dark (25-1) with Safe Passage third at 5-1 and Do It Again fourth at 7-1. This time the unplaced favourite was Pomp And Power at 9-2. Last year’s R24,359,60 was paid out when Oriental Charm (10-1), got the honours ahead of Cousin Casey (25-1), Royal Victory (10-1) and Flag Man (14-1). Green With Envy (7-2) was the unplaced tote favourite.
The lowest Durban July Quartet return since 2010 was R960,30 in 2021, when Kommetdieding won at 10-1 from Linebacker (3-1), the favourite Got The Greenlight (3-1) and Do It Again (50-1). However, the 15-year average payout is a healthy R32,000 and change.
It goes without saying (we’ll say it anyway), that a big Quartet payout depends almost entirely on the tote favourite finishing out of the first four. If this year’s headline-hitting favourite Eight On Eighteen (15-10 at the time of writing) makes the frame, the payout will be on the small side. Unless, of course, the first three places are filled by longshots Rainbow Lorikeet (66-1), Native Ruler (50-1) and Purple Pitcher (40-1). But that seems unlikely by any stretch of the imagination.
So how do you win the Durban July Quartet? A starting point will be to take a stand on Eight On Eighteen. Are you with him, or against him? Determine what you think the minimum payout will be if he wins and make that your maximum investment. Or, of course, bet against him and hope for a shock result. A third option is to play both options. However strong public sentiment is about the favourite, the Quartet remains a gamble and it could be your lucky day!
With a multitude of options, plotting your course of action can be confusing, but Mark van Deventer offers some advice in his new book, ‘Sharp Betting Strategies in Modern Horseracing’ (www.sharphorseplayer.com). He notes, on the Quartet: “Some shrewd professional players reckon that this bet… represents the best investment in racing. Perhaps the most refined method to play the Quartet, is to insist that your top pick finishes in the first four, and your second choice runs in the first four, with selected other runners to fill the other positions. Capable form students who are able to predict around 30% of winners ought to have a better than 50% chance of predicting a top-two finish in spot plays (roving bankers). The back-up runners are chosen merely to make the frame – again a fairly high probability call for a diligent form expert.” A TAB Quartet with two roving bankers x 10 others costs R1,080.
Above: Conrad van der Westhuizen (image: supplied)
There are several keen Quartet players who shared their bets with us, starting with Conrad van der Westhuizen, a travelling contract worker from Cape Town who is presently on holiday in Phuket, presumably with recent winnings. Conrad said: “Eight On Eighteen is my banker to win, he is unbeaten beyond 1600m and I believe he will continue winning. The rest of the places are tricky, as usual, in this big field, it will depend again on where the gaps open, and luck is needed if you’re not drawn well, ideally between 4-10. I think Selukwe is the biggest danger to Eight On Eighteen. I’m playing a multiple with 11 to win x 1,4,6,8,10,14,17 x 1,2, 3, 4,5, 6,8,10,14,17 x 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,10,13,14,17. (R441).
Above: Anil Salick (Image: supplied)
Durban-based Anil Salick, a regular punter often seen at pre-July promotional functions, is also firmly in the Eight On Eighteen camp and said: “I’m playing around the favourite in first and second positions, going with 11 x 1,5,6,13,16 x 1,5,6,13,16 x Field. (R192), and my backup will be, 1,5,6,13,16 x 11 x 1,5,6,13,16 x Field. (R320).
Francois Van Ghent, who some years ago tipped under the name ‘Longshot’ in Sporting Post and is known for his success with roughies, subscribes to the double-floating banker method, and recommends playing away from the favourite, to get the cash! His two roving bankers are Selukwe and Gladatorian, and his R240 Quartet perm is Float 6,16 x 1, 3, 8, 10, 11. Van Ghent is based in Mogadishu, Somalia, where he will be watching this year’s big race on DSTV. He is confident in his bet as given, but said if push comes to shove, he may include the Eastern Cape raider, My Best Shot, for more cover.
George Croucher, who books log-leading jockey Gavin Lerena’s rides at the coast, commented: “For obvious reasons, my heart is with Gavin’s mount, Madison Valley, but my head is with Eight On Eighteen. I am going to float 2 and 11 with 1, 3, 5, 6, 9 and 10 for an outlay of R360."
Another jockey’s agent is Monty Mariemutoo, who has a long-standing association with S'Manga Khumalo. “I must admit I am very happy with S'Manga’s ride, On My Honour. My jockey has an excellent record in this race. But while I think we will make Eight on Eighteen work for it, I am more hopeful than confident. My Quartet is banker 11 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 12,14 x 1,2,3,4,7,12,14 x Field, for a R672 permutation. Interestingly, Monty is the only expert who gives the only filly in the race, Rainbow Lorikeet, a first-four chance.
Above: Frankie Zackey (Image: supplied)
Lifetime punter Frankie Zackey has landed a few doubles recently, and he feels confident that On My Honour is the best floater in the July Quartet. Frankie often follows the money, and said: “They put the lights out on On My Honour, he was backed from 33-1 to 20-1 last week and he’s now at 16-1. I am floating 3 with 1, 2, 5, 6, 10 and 11, a R360 bet.
Above: ‘Zorro’ Lahoud (Image: supplied)
Zorro Lahoud, another of the Gauteng region’s career punters who seldom misses a meeting, said his play is a Triple Floating banker bet – Madison Valley, On My Honour and Eight On Eighteen, with the field to fill the fourth spot, Bold play – float 2,3,11 by Field for R360, but Zorro is a shrewdie.
Michael Rofail is known as one of the TAB Tote’s biggest hitters. He has two definite floaters in Eight On Eighteen and Oriental Charm, but at the time of our interview had not yet finalised his other inclusions. He said: “I use mathematical techniques and a balance of probabilities, and my winning strike rate with Quartets is especially good.”
With millions up for grabs and a range of approaches from seasoned punters, the Durban July Quartet once again promises to deliver drama, surprises, and, if the stars align, a life-changing dividend!