OFF THE RECORD #52

Betway Summer Cup
Shrewd ante-post punters weigh in on value odds

Above: Betway's Jonathan Blumberg with 4Racing CEO Fundi Sithebe

Jonathan Blumberg, head of customer experience at Betway, said that there has been lively participation in the ante-post market for the Grade 1 Betway Summer Cup at Turffontein on Saturday, 30 November.

Blumberg said: “Early punters are putting their money down. There have been notable bets struck already on four of the top five on the board, See It Again, Royal Victory, Frances Ethel and Silver Sanctuary. We’re expecting things to really heat up when the final field is declared next week. But there are any number of takers now. See It Again has been priced up at 4-1 for a while (at the time of writing, Thursday afternoon, 14 November), he has a good share of supporters who believe that his odds will shorten significantly in the run-up to the race.”

See It Again was impressive in his 1600m preparation run at Greyville recently, eased down at the line in a win over Royal Victory, whose own performance carried merit ahead of his title defence.

Retired Durban bookmaker Selwyn Elk agrees with Blumberg that See It Again will shorten in the market. “It looks like Betway are giving their punters a bonus, their prices are currently much better. I think See It Again will start around 5-2 or even shorter. At his current 9-1 there is value, too, about Winchester Mansion. He looked well before the Charity Mile and won the way he looked. Purple Pitcher, in the 25-1 range, is my best roughie in the pack. He only finished four lengths off in the Victory Moon Handicap, a good horse at his best.”

Regular day-to-day punters are divided in their opinions. Some view the race as wide open, with several longer-priced hopefuls in contention.

Among those keen on spotting valuable outsiders is 4Racing’s COO Colin Gordon, who recently made Chyavana—a 25-1 shot— a “good thing” in a sprint at Turffontein, surprising even the gelding’s trainer, Johan Janse van Vuuren. Gordon said: “My early fancy is Hotarubi at 36-1 on Betway, which is huge value. He ran on strongly in the Charity Mile and we all know how well Sean Tarry times his training to brings his horses to a peak on big days.”

Above: Francois van Ghent

Pretoria-based Francois Van Ghent, who tipped under the pseudonym ‘Longshot’ on Sporting Post for a few years, is bullish about 34-1 chance, Safe Passage. He said: “Safe Passage has finished second in the last two runnings of the Summer Cup. Last year, he came into the race off a few moderate runs, like he will do this year. But he enjoys the Turffontein 2000 and he can go one better this time. I’ve been watching him, and I think Mike de Kock will have two runners in the first four this year.”

Van Ghent didn’t say which of the other De Kock entries he thinks would share a Quartet placing with Safe Passage, but chances are he’d side with Silver Sanctuary, the well-performed filly who is also the fancy of Johannesburg’s Greg Naidoo, who commented: “I can’t wait for the race, I’ve looked at Betway’s ante-post betting and I think Silver Sanctuary offers value at 9-1.”

Naidoo said he has a special affinity with fillies and that he backed 2011 Summer Cup winner Dancewiththedevil and Summer Pudding, who won in 2020. “I was also on Fort Ember, who was at 36-1 when she finished second to Liege in 2017. So I’ll nail my colours to the mast. Silver Sanctuary’s had two good prep runs and there are no stamina doubts about her. She’s a big runner.”

Another in agreement with Silver Sanctuary is Dr. Kevin Bakos, who said: “I like to side with the big stables in the major features, and this filly has plenty of class. I think she presents good value at 9-1.”

Above: Rob Zackey

Rob Zackey feels Main Defender is the horse to watch, and he said Betway’s 11-1 is a gift. “Main Defender is a top horse and he is coming to his peak. Tony Peter left something on the bone after his good second place under a big weight last week. I’m all in, this is a big runner!”

Above: Philip Goldberg

Cape Town’s Philip Goldberg said See It Again is a worthy favourite and the one they’ll have to peg back, but he has his eye on 46-1 outsider, Puerto Manzano. Goldberg opined: “As a previous winner of the race with loads of ability, I think he can spring a surprise. We know he has his problems, but he’s been coming along steadily this season. I’ll be taking some 46-1 for value with Betway.”

Another Pretoria racing fan is SAAF Colonel, Charles Simonse, who is also a member of the See It Again fan club. He has taken the 4-1 on offer and a box Quartet to cover on See It Again, Royal Victory, Winchester Mansion and the Oaks winning filly, Frances Ethel.

That UK Champion jockey Oisin Murphy has been booked for the ride on Frances Ethel is more than enough encouragement for Bloemfontein-based Leon Smit, who said: “It must be costing Mr Barry Irwin (owner) a tidy sum to fly Oisin out for the Cup. The connections won’t be spending all that money for nothing, and trainer Brett Crawford winds them up for the big races. I’ve taken 4000/500, a nice bet to my mind!”

George Croucher, who books jockey Gavin Lerena’s coastal rides, reckons his jock will win it on Royal Victory. “In all sincerity I would have gone for Royal Victory, anyway, given the weight turnaround with See It Again on their recent encounter. He gave See It Again 1,5kg and in the Summer Cup he will be receiving 3kg. That’s a 4.5kg swing. Gavin has won three Summer Cups, an additional benefit. The draws are not out yet, but Royal Victory was drawn 13 when he won last year, so that doesn’t really concern me. Betway’s 8-1 is massive value.”

The last word to Betway’s Mr Blumberg himself. He revealed that the most ‘roughie’ money had come for Pure Predator, but that was prior to the Victory Moon Stakes, in which he was beaten 16 lengths.

Blumberg, too, is going for Silver Sanctuary and he said: “Although potentially out at the weights, she’s enjoyed a great prep and her form shows some top runs to Gimme A Nother, the best filly we’ve seen here for a long time. She is course and distance suited and her trainer is hitting form.”