Big Fields, Big Money, Big Decisions!
Media Mavericks Unpack Cup Day’s Pick 6 Minefield
Welcome to the 100th edition of 4Racing’s Off The Record, where today’s column is dedicated to offering a few valuable pointers for the carryover Pick 6 at Turffontein on Betway Summer Cup day. We all have our own methods and strategies, but sometimes a little insight from someone else can make the difference between winning and losing. Could there be something you’ve overlooked?
The R1-million carryover is expected to lift the pool to in excess of R5-million, but big fields and closely matched runners make this a tougher sequence than usual, and the familiar Pick 6 questions apply: where to banker, where to spread, and where to keep options open. A bit of careful structuring could be the key to staying alive deep into the play on a day where, as Computaform points out, punters will have to rely on hope and instinct alongside knowledge of form.
4Racing’s on-course presenting team, anchored by Neil Andrews, will be providing their view from trackside, with Darryl Maree and Clyde Basel of Betway’s Weighted To Win team digging into the form. We’ve asked a few other tipping experts from the media for a few concise comments, which we hope you will find helpful while doing your assessments.
Let’s start with freelancer Gary Lemke and Race Coast presenter Devonne Govender, who won multiple tipping competitions in the HWB Racing Stars Tipping Series in 2023. They’re both big on statistical data, and Lemke commented: “If draw bias is a real thing (low around the turn, high down the straight) then that’s a big factor in big fields which should be considered.”
He pointed to big stables with many runners – Sean Tarry has 20, Tony Peter has 19 (both have 12 in the Pick 6) and said: “Like Justin Snaith goes all in on LKP and Cape Met race days, punters can expect the Tarry and Peter runners to be fit and ready to strike.”
Above: The Equator, potentially handicapped to win (image: supplied)
Lemke reckons that two of Peter’s Pick 6 runners, in particular, are automatic inclusions. He said: “The stable’s two Pick 6 runners who are to be ridden by Gavin Lerena should go in before anything else. As a trainer/jockey combination, they have a strike rate of 46% this season (32% last season). They team up with Rachel Wall (Race 4) and The Equator (Race 8, Summer Cup).”
Lemke noted on The Equator: “The question one has to ask is, ‘Has The Equator shown enough to be a true MR 117?’ If you believe he is still a few pounds ahead of the handicapper and hence very well weighted, he is a banker in the Pick 6. If you think he is over-rated and lower than a MR117, you’ll have to go wider. The Summer Cup will be either the easiest race, or toughest.”
Govender backs up Lemke’s views on draws and said: “Last year, all winners in the Pick 6 came from draw 10 and below. In 2023, four legs were won by horses from draw 7 and below, with 2 winners coming from draw 13. When favoured runners jump from very wide gates, I tend to play wider unless there's a clear standout.”
He stressed the difficulty of Race 4, the first leg of the Pick 6, and said: “The opening leg of the Pick 6 is challenging. Recent draw statistics suggest that draws 6, 10, and 15 are most favourable, despite the fact that some horses have relatively consistent form but are lower-rated or potentially outclassed from these draws, I will still include them, as the field size leaves room for an upset.”
Computaform’s ace tipster Brendan Gaillard makes Quantum Theory his best value bet of the day in Race 5, and Govender shared his sentiments, saying: “He was very unlucky in his last start, cruising with no gap but got going late. He prefers to come from behind, and this race is likely to have plenty of speed, so he’s a genuine threat.”
David Thiselton of Turf Talk said: “Jan van Goyen stands out, ability wise, in Race 7, so he might be a banker. But this is his reappearance so it will be a bit risky to rely on him. One could take a chance by making the 3rd leg (Race 6), the thinnest with just Hazy Dazy and Littemissmillion. Hazy Dazy is way better than her last run and will relish the return to 1600m over this galloping course and distance. Littlemissmillion shouldn't take much work to get her fit as she is small and she has been hugely impressive in her two starts.”
SAHorseracing.com mentioned something interesting: “In race 6, the raider Silva City is best weighted but 25/1 with the bookmakers at this stage. Let's see how the Gqeberha form stacks up noting that Alan Greeff has numerous top fillies in this division and he decided to send this filly on a road trip. She is a full 7 points better weighted than the Grade 3 Starling Stakes winner, Valentina Balducci.”
Eastern Cape expert, Nadine Low Ah Kee, agreed that Silva City was a dark horse. She said: “Her wide draw is an obvious worry, but I definitely think she is worthy of inclusion, She is a nice filly.”
Govender believes Jan Van Goyen can be relied upon as the day’s banker, but 4Racing’s Jack Milner agreed with Thiselton that Jan Van Goyen will need cover, and wrote: “One could possibly get away with just two runners in Race 7 – Jan Van Goyen and Tin Pan Alley – but it could be worth including Trust who has looked good in both of his races.”
Trust has featured on a few forums on social media and has been on the lips of a number of experts. Her revealed himself as a high-quality colt with a narrow Grade 2 defeat, straight out of the Maidens, and with further improvement has an undeniable chance.
An outsider to consider in Race 7 is Whispering Death. Note his easy win over subsequent Grade 2 winner and rival, Chronicle King, back in March 2025. That was eight months ago, but it is an indication of his true ability and there are some positive reports coming from trainers Mike and Mathew de Kock, who have advised including him in the Pick 6. They must be thinking he has a chance to topple his more accomplished stablemate, having had the benefit of two prep runs.
Above: King Pelles, popular choice (image: Candiese Lenferna)
On to the Summer Cup, where 4Racing’s discussion panel, including Anton Marcus, Betway’s Jonathan Blumberg and Mike de Kock and are all big on King Pelles. Govender said he was “tempted to make it a banker”, and Milner felt that King Pelles and The Equator would suffice in small perms, though also mentioned the other popular runners Atticus Finch, Royal Victory and Madison Valley. There are varied other opinions on the big race. On My Honour is talented and on the upgrade, and Otto Luyken is fancied by a few shrewdies, including Neil Andrews.
4Racing’s Danie Toerien is sticking with The Equator, noting that as a son of Galileo, the big-actioned horse will be well suited to soft conditions. Toerien will, however, be having an eachway bet on Olivia’s Way and said: “She is a good filly who loves a wet track and the distance, and she’s two-from-two in her third runs after a rest.”
Above: Olivia's Way, course and distance suited (image: JC Photographics)
At this point, let’s bring in Mark van Deventer’s strategy, based on his proven speed figures and unusual, but often effective structuring methods. He writes, “With big fields and highly competitive racing, Nostradamus-like vision and smart ticket construction will be needed for the Summer Cup Day Pick 6.
“There are over 17 million possible combinations in Saturday’s sequence making it a desperately low probability bet. But the size of the pool and difficulty of hitting means the dividend should be massive, whatever happens.
“There are many ways to approach these multi-leg, horizontal wagers. What I find useful is to try “lock up” a leg or two with several runners covering say, 75% of the win probability. In dastardly difficult legs, such as the Carry On Alice Stakes which starts off the Pick 6 and bookies are offering 6/1 the field, a much wider spread of around a dozen plausible contenders can be taken.
Above: Future Variety, flashy Cape raider (image: Chase Liebenberg)
“In the third part of the strategy, essential for keeping costs within a reasonable limit, bankers are selected. My three “singles” are Future Variety (10/1 in the Merchants), Trust (4/1 in the Dingaans) and On My Honour (28/1 in the Summer Cup).
“The chances of all three winning is like catching lightning in a bottle - just too remote a possibility – in fact it’s way less than even 1%! Having just one of them win and locking up/ spreading wider in the other five legs is also too expensive for such a risky, all-or- nothing gamble where one oversight or miscue throws you right out.
“So, the compromise is to require that any two of these three singles win. This involves crafting three perms: 1) Bankering Future Variety x Trust; 2) Future Variety x On My Honour; and 3) Trust x On My Honour.
“I never approach Pick 6s expecting to win them. That’s arrogant and delusional given the tiny chance of connecting. But the massive pots are always tempting, and potentially life-changing. And remember that percentage/fractional betting means you can tailor spending to suit your budget.”
Dave Mollett backed up Van Deventer’s “Nostradamus” mention with his own, on the cost of including all runners with form chances. Molly said: “Unless you are a relation of Elon Musk you will need to find a banker in this Pick 6.”
Molly suggested Alladin’s Lamp as a banker in Race 9 and wrote: “He hails from a good stable and he has a red-hot jockey in JP van der Merwe. I also expect a big run from Rodeo Drive in Race 4.”
Above: Alladin’s Lamp, popular banker at the back (JC Photographics)
Interestingly, Gary Lemke and Computaform’s Pick 6 previewer also suggested Alladin’s Lamp as a banker, and stated: “Alladin’s Lamp has come into his own this year. He is best performed of all over 2000m and should be at his peak for this race. He steps up against a few hard knockers, but is probably better than his 95 rating and has a galloping weight of only 52,5kg.” There is merit in trying to get through the tricky first five legs, just to have a chance of shouting your lungs out for a single runner at the back.
Jack Milner ended with a cautionary: “Make sure your selections run well in the wet!”
We’ve tried to combine all the advice given above in our structuring of an affordable perm, as below. Good luck, and remember to cover your Pick 6 bets by taking all three Jackpots with different bankers or additions.
Off The Record’s suggested “Media” perm:
R294 for 10%
Leg 1: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9,10
Leg 2: 4, 6
Leg 3: 2, 3, 4, 5, 9, 16
Leg 4: 1, 2, 3, 7, 11
Leg 5: 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10, 14
Leg 6: 11