Jack Milner: Winter Smoke was narrowly beaten by stable companion Captain Hindsight last time but the daughter of What A Winter is confidently expected to get back into her winning habits at the Vaal on Thursday.
Ashley Fortune’s charge contests Race 7, a Progress Plate over 1000m, and she comes into the event as the second-best handicapped runner.
She made her return to racing this season in a MR 88 Handicap over 1000m on the Vaal Classic track on 1 October and although starting favourite, just failed to get the better of Captain Hindsight.
Winter Smoke was clearly in need of that run, which will have brought her on substantially. In that handicap the three-year-old filly carried 59.5kg but comes into this race with just 54.5kg this time.
Fortune confirmed yesterday that Winter Smoke was doing very well at home so with the lighter weight and the run under her belt, she should have too much speed for her rivals.
Calvin Habib takes the ride.
Another three-year-old filly, Sweet Sensation from the Corne Spies yard, is the best handicapped runner by just 0.5kg and looks the main danger. This daughter of Var is at her best over this trip and she does have man-of-the-moment Muzi Yeni in the irons.
He is currently on fire, with victory in the Peermont Emperors Palace Charity Mile aboard Hudoo Magic on Saturday, a winner at Greyville on Sunday and three winners at Turffontein on Monday.
Piere Strydom has an excellent record on South East, with two wins and a second place in the last three starts with him up.
Had this been a handicap, Paul Peter’s charge would have received 1.5kg from the filly but under the race conditions he gives her 2.5kg.
Indications from Fortune is that Winter Smoke is more talented than Captain Morisco who went down 2.25 lengths to South East at level weights, so that is another pointer to the filly.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 1 Lagertha, 5 Queen Noor, 2 Flower Season, 7 Twice The Act
Race 2: 4 Royal Wulff, 11 Indlamu, 2 Shadow Creek, 5 Curfew
Race 3: 6 Bold Resolve, 8 Believeinthefuture, 9 Dark Vision, 7 Jacalac
Race 4: 4 Dogliotti, 1 Funky Music, 2 Fire Flower, 13 Lets Talk
Race 5: 11 Grazinginthegrass, 1 Gold Rock, 9 Magic Vision, 3 Chevron
Race 6: 10 Our Man In Havana, 9 Lord Melbourne, 3 Tyrus Express, 7 Sell High
Race 7: 8 Winter Smoke, 9 Sweet Sensation, 5 South East, 7 Visiway
Race 8: 7 Fromheretoeternity, 2 Herstel, 1 Comaneci, 3 Impressive Duchess
Race 9: 1 After Hours, 2 Soul Connection, 6 Deerupt, 13 Crown Guardian
BEST BET
Race 7 No 8 Winter Smoke
VALUE BET
Race 6 No 10 Our Man In Havana
BEST SWINGER
Race 8 2×7
BIPOT
R320
Leg 1: 4
Leg 2: 6, 7, 8, 9
Leg 3: 1, 2, 4, 9, 13
Leg 4: 1, 3, 9, 11
Leg 5: 3, 7, 9, 10
Leg 6: 8
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R324
Leg 1: 6, 8, 9
Leg 2: 1, 2, 4
Leg 3: 1, 9, 11
Leg 4: 3, 9, 10
Leg 5: 8
Leg 6: 2, 7
Leg 7: 1, 2
PICK 6
R1800
Leg 1: 1, 2, 4, 9, 10, 13
Leg 2: 1, 3, 6, 8, 9, 11
Leg 3: 2, 3, 7, 9, 10
Leg 4: 8
Leg 5: 2, 7
Leg 6: 1, 2, 5, 6, 13
JACKPOT 1
R60
Leg 1: 1, 3, 6, 8, 9, 11
Leg 2: 2, 3, 7, 9, 10
Leg 3: 8
Leg 4: 2, 7
JACKPOT 2
R50
Leg 1: 2, 3, 7, 9, 10
Leg 2: 8
Leg 3: 2, 7
Leg 4: 1, 2, 5, 6, 13