Jack Milner
There are certain norms that govern the way in which punters bet. One of those is not to back a maiden winner in its next race.
It is accurate that most winners of a maiden plate don’t follow up next time but that is true of most winners. After all, how many horses win two in a row?
Of course, it depends on the quality of the runner but bread-and-butter horses rarely double up.
However, we are going to break that rule in Race 8 at the Vaal on Thursday, a MR 73 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1450m.
In fact, this could be a case where two recent maiden winners fight out the finish. There was a lot to like about the manner in which Reny and Asiye Phambili won their respective races last time and they both give their impression there will be bigger events pencilled in on their calendars.
Reny started her career in Cape Town with Brett Crawford where she ran twice, finishing a 3.25-length fifth first time out behind highly thought of Camille Claudel, who went off a 1-3 favourite.
Reny’s second run was behind Golden Hostess, who then went on to finish a 1.50-length fourth behind Gobsmacked in The Debutante (Grade 2) at Greyville in July.
Reny, a daughter of Gimmethegreenlight, moved up to Crawford’s satellite yard at Randjesfontein run by his son, James, and clearly adapted well to her new surroundings. Her local debut was over 1200m at this track where she was well backed, and she ran out a fluent 2.75-length winner over Efficient Trader.
She looks ideally suited to the additional 250m and could quite easily win again. With Kabelo Matsunyane on a short, enforced holiday, Craig Zackey has picked up the ride.
In a similar vein, Asiye Phambili has had three runs, beaten in two starts at Scottsville by less than a length on both occasions, before running out a 1.25-length winner over 1200m on the Turffontein Inside track last month.
This Sean Tarry-trained filly also looks above average and could well follow up on her maiden win. On breeding, she too should benefit by the extra distance. Keagan de Melo takes the ride.
Of course, unless it is a dead heat, one of the two will definitely uphold the precept of not winning their post-maiden, so at best or worst, it will be at least 50% right.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 3 Princess Ilaria, 13 Lil Miss Moneybags, 4 Above The World, 2 Mia Fiore
Race 2: 1 Platinum Sky, 5 Climate Control, 4 East Coast, 3 Satoshi
Race 3: 2 Thermopylae, 1 Big Five, 3 Samthewiseman, 10 Dungeons
Race 4: 4 Memorial Day, 8 Bonete, 11 Splendid Season, 9 Rosy Lemon
Race 5: 1 Nice Move, 11 October Fair, 4 Mighty Goddess, 3 Lady Regent
Race 6: 2 Stormy Seas, 11 Stormy Lass, 12 Magic Dancer, 3 Smith And Wesson
Race 7: 5 Princess Philippa, 1 Paton's Tears, 9 Rimaah, 4 Golden Aspen
Race 8: 11 Reny, 4 Asiye Phambili, 7 Angel's Wish, 3 Defender Of Rights
BEST BET
Race 2 No 1 Platinum Sky
VALUE BET
Race 8 No 11 Reny
BEST SWINGER
Race 3 1x2
BIPOT
R288
Leg 1: 3, 4, 13
Leg 2: 1
Leg 3: 1, 2
Leg 4: 4, 8, 9, 11
Leg 5: 1, 4, 11
Leg 6: 2, 3, 11, 12
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R162
Leg 1: 1
Leg 2: 1, 2
Leg 3: 4, 8, 11
Leg 4: 1
Leg 5: 2, 11. 12
Leg 6: 1, 5, 9
Leg 7: 4, 7, 11
PICK 6
R1728
Leg 1: 1, 2
Leg 2: 4, 8, 9, 11
Leg 3: 1, 3, 4, 11
Leg 4: 1, 2, 3, 6, 11, 12
Leg 5: 1, 5, 9
Leg 6: 4, 7, 11
JACKPOT 1
R288
Leg 1: 4, 8, 9, 11
Leg 2: 1, 3, 4, 11
Leg 3: 1, 2, 3, 6, 11, 12
Leg 4: 1, 5, 9
JACKPOT 2
R288
Leg 1: 1, 3, 4, 11
Leg 2: 1, 2, 3, 6, 11, 12
Leg 3: 1, 5, 9
Leg 4: 3, 4, 7, 11