Jack Milner: Over the years a number of horses who have begun their careers in Zimbabwe have relocated south of the border and performed well.
Lily Blue is one of those runners. She did not excel early in her career in Harare when confined to sprints, once put over further she came into her own. She won nine races in Zimbabwe, including the Derby and the Oaks, over 2400m and 2000m respectively, before the decision was taken to move to the Highveld.
It made sense, as it was clear nothing could live with her at Borrowdale, and since the daughter of Black Minnaloushe has joined Paul Matchett’s yard, she has added another two wins to her portfolio.
Lily Blue looks likely to notch up her 12th victory when she lines up at the Vaal in Race 4 on Thursday a MR 100 Handicap for fillies and mares over 2000m. The distance is clearly no issue, Muzi Yeni is back aboard and Lily Blue is the one to beat, even though some runners have a chance on form.
Topping that list is Rouge Allure, who finished a 0.50-length second to Lily Blue last time over 1800m and is now 1kg better off. However, while jockey S’manga Khumalo has a good record on the Stephen Moffatt-trained mare, 2000m might prove to be a step too far for the seven-year-old.
She was unplaced in her only run over this trip and she was really flat to the boards last time over 1800m.
Shivers is very much in the same boat, but she is by Silvano and could be better over this sort of distance as she gets older.
Candice Dawson has her yard in good form and a big run is expected from lightly weighted Smoking Hot. She is 1kg out on merit ratings but gets a 2.5kg allowance courtesy of apprentice Joshwin Solomons and will carry just 49.5kg.
However, the biggest threat could come from Pomander, who finally is back at a merit rating that will make her competitive. Mike de Kock’s runner received a 10kg penalty for running second to Summer Pudding in the SA Oaks, and was weighted out of every race since.
However, the handicappers have finally dropped her rating markedly and she has been reduced 6kg in her last two runs.
That will make her competitive and she should not be left out of the Pick 6 or Jackpot. Apprentice Kabelo Matsunyane rides.
Jack Milner
Race 1: 12 Successful Ruler, 10 Karvani, 7 Boston Light, 1 Fort Commander
Race 2: 11 Kissing Booth,Race 1 Right Choice, 3 Malvern, 4 Differentiate
Race 3: 4 Spring Break, 5 Varina, 1 Valyrian King, 2 Garden Party
Race 4: 3 Lily Blue, 4 Pomander, 2 Rouge Allure, 6 Smoking Hot
Race 5: 2 Tyrus Express, 3 Zeal And Zest, 4 Sell High, 5 Nebraas
Race 6: 12 Private Ruler, 9 Plum Field, 1 Afternoon Tea, 10 Bravo One
Race 7: 4 Un Deux Trois, 2 Swiss Bank, 5 Soul Of Wit, 3 Willo’Thewisp
Race 8: 1 Midnight Caller, 4 Bahlebonke, 11 Speechmaker, 3 Into The Future
BEST BET
Race 2 No 11 Kissing Booth
VALUE BET
Race 8 No 1 Midnight Caller
BEST SWINGER
Race 7 2×4
BIPOT
R144
Leg 1: 7, 10, 12
Leg 2: 11
Leg 3: 1, 4, 5
Leg 4: 3
Leg 5: 2, 3, 4, 5
Leg 6: 1, 9, 10, 12
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R216
Leg 1: 11
Leg 2: 1, 4, 5
Leg 3: 3
Leg 4: 2, 3, 4
Leg 5: 1, 9, 12
Leg 6: 2, 4
Leg 7: 1, 3, 4, 11
PICK 6
1920
Leg 1: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Leg 2: 3, 4
Leg 3: 2, 3, 4, 5
Leg 4: 1, 9, 10, 12
Leg 5: 2, 3
Leg 6: 1, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11
JACKPOT 1
R64
Leg 1: 3, 4
Leg 2: 2, 3, 4, 5
Leg 3: 1, 9, 10, 12
Leg 4: 2, 3
JACKPOT 2
R192
Leg 1: 2, 3, 4, 5
Leg 2: 1, 9, 10, 12
Leg 3: 2, 3
Leg 4: 1, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11