Jack Milner
Trainer Joe Soma put Saturday’s R2.5-million Betway Summer Cup into perspective when he said: “The horse that has best improved from his or her prep run, will win the Summer Cup.”
Quite a few of the leading contenders have only had one warm-up run leading into the Grade 1 race over 2000m on the Turffontein Standside track and many of them finished within a touch of one another.
And that is what makes Soma’s assessment so accurate.
Mike de Kock, who is seeking his 10th win in this race, has four runners, and all of them have only had one warm-up run. “They’ve all come off good rests. They were shipped out to farms but will all improve after that run,” said De Kock.
There is no question De Kock has the strongest hand with Sparkling Water, Safe Passage, Aragosta and MK’s Pride.
While the first three, in particular, have strong winning chances and occupy the three spots on the betting boards, Hollywoodbets Durban July champion Sparkling Water stands out from the pack.
She has filled out and looks a picture – and from No 5 draw with S’manga Khumalo up, she will take all the beating.
“She’s up on her July weight but I certainly believe she has improved and the conditions of the race with the 6kg span have got to be in her favour,” said De Kock.
Sparkling Water is looking to emulate the feat of El Picha who was the last horse to pull off the Durban July and Summer Cup double in the same year (2000).
But one also has to have respect for Grade 1 Daily News 2000 winner Safe Passage, who then went on to finish third behind Sparkling Water in the Durban July. He’s also filled out and will have improved, but he is just 1.5kg better off with Sparkling Water for a 3.30-length beating – and that may not be enough to turn the tables.
“In the July I thought he ran to the best of his ability,” said De Kock. “Jet Dark and Sparkling Water beat him and at the weights he couldn’t beat Sparkling Water. A three-year-old giving her weight, how’s that going to work?
“I thought they (the handicappers) got the assessment of the Daily News totally wrong and with that they finally buried the three-year olds’ chances.
“But Safe Passage likes Turffontein. The long straight gives him the time to build-up.”
Muzi Yeni takes the ride.
Aragosta is 3kg better off with Safe Passage on their Durban July run but he will have to improve on his recent form to threaten his stablemates.
But if you like Safe Passage you must respect Soma’s runner, Red Saxon. The four-year-old son of Red Ray has always run close to Safe Passage as a three-year-old and beat him in the Grade 1 SA Classic over 1800m at Turffontein. Those runs were all at level weights, but this time Red Saxon will be in receipt of 3kg from De Kock’s charge.
He did lose his form in KwaZulu-Natal but as gelded and came back beautifully when finishing fourth in the Grade 2 Allied Steelrode Onamission Charity Mile last month. At the finish, just 0.50 lengths separated Red Saxon and third-placed Safe Passage.
“I can’t say he’ll win, but I can say he will run a very good race,” said Soma. “The preparations have gone beautifully and I’m very excited about his prospects.
“He has matured beautifully from a three-year-old to a four-year-old. He’s had one very decent gallop after his comeback run and looks in great shape.”
Julius Mariba rode Red Saxon when he won the SA Classic and he will be back in the irons once again. However, he will have to contend with No 17 draw.
After these three it becomes wide open but while 2000m is probably at the limit of his ability, one has to respect William Robertson who is a class act and currently in flowing form. He ran a great fourth in the Victory Moon Stakes and was right in touch with Sparkling Water who finished just 1.40 lengths ahead of him. He is 0.5kg better off and was producing the faster finish of the pair.
Trainer Corne Spies was hoping for a draw from Nos 1 to 5 and he pulled No 3. He couldn’t have done better than that.
Sean Tarry has won four of the last five Summer Cups and while he does not have the strongest hand this year, his runners do need to be respected. He has top jockeys on all of his horses but it is interesting that Calvin Habib chose to ride Pyromaniac over Victory Moon Stakes winner Litigation.
There is a Pick 6 carryover of R2 million with a likely pool of R10 million and there will be R500,000 kickstarting the Quartet pool, which is likely to reach R2 million, so there are plenty reasons for punters to get involved.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 7 Ripple Effect, 6 Move On Over, 2 Zinovi, 11 Troppo Veloce
Race 2: 7 Melech, 8 Slinky Mapimpi, 11 Inventrix, 2 Insightful
Race 3: 10 Bon Vivant, 9 Bard Of Avon, 6 Another Level, 3 Forever Mine
Race 4: 4 Gobsmacked, 2 Sweet Pepper, 11 Kiss Me Captain, 6 Alula's Star
Race 5: 3 Desert Miracle, 1 Big Burn, 11 Moonshiningthrough, 10 Now I Got You
Race 6: 9 Shoemaker, 3 Royal Victory, 5 East Coast, 7 Union Square
Race 7: 4 Sparkling Water, 5 Safe Passage, 9 Red Saxon, 1 William Robertson
Race 8: 4 Marigold Hotel, 10 Miss Daisy, 12 Gimme A Shot, 9 Feather Boa
Race 9: 1 Imperial Ruby, 2 Marchingontogether, 6 Alfaatik, 4 Motown Magic
Race 10: 7 Tamarisk Tree, 5 Good Council, 1 Kaptein, 9 Climate Control
BEST BET
Race 6 No 9 Shoemaker
VALUE BET
Race 8 No 4 Marigold Hotel
BEST SWINGER
Race 2 7x8
BIPOT
R72
Leg 1: 7, 8
Leg 2: 10
Leg 3: 2, 4, 6, 11
Leg 4: 1, 3, 11
Leg 5: 9
Leg 6: 4, 5, 9
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R150
Leg 1: 10
Leg 2: 2, 4, 11
Leg 3: 1, 3
Leg 4: 9
Leg 5: 4
Leg 6: 1, 4, 9, 10, 12
Leg 7: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6
PICK 6
R1920
Leg 1: 2, 4, 6, 11
Leg 2: 1, 3, 10, 11
Leg 3: 9
Leg 4: 4, 5, 9
Leg 5: 1, 4, 9, 10, 12
Leg 6: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
JACKPOT 1
R60
Leg 1: 1, 3, 10, 11
Leg 2: 9
Leg 3: 4, 5, 9
Leg 4: 1, 4, 9, 10, 12
JACKPOT 2
R480
Leg 1: 4, 5, 9
Leg 2: 1, 4, 9, 10, 12
Leg 3: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Leg 4: 1, 5, 7, 9