Jack Milner
The second leg of the Winter Series will be run at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday and in lots of respects, they are very different race form-wise.
The Listed World Sports Betting Ladies Mile (1600m) looks to be at the mercy of Brett Crawford-trained Happy Chance.
Happy Chance justified market support, after a promising sprint comeback over 1200m, when winning the Listed 1400m Sweet Chestnut Stakes a little under three weeks ago, and this daughter of Dynasty is good value to follow up in Leg 2 of the fillies-and-mares’ series.
She ran down re-opposing Kwinta's Light to win Leg 1 and should confirm her superiority over Justin Snaith's charge on 1.5kg better terms.
Happy Chance has had three starts over 1600m, winning the first at Hollywoodbets Durbanville comfortably and then scoring a runaway 6.25 lengths at this track. Her third run was in the Grade 1 Cape Filles Guineas in which she finished a 3.55-length fifth behind stable companion Make It Snappy.
On current form she will prove extremely hard to beat. Louie Mxothwa is back in the irons for this race.
Last-start winner Love Is A Rose and consistent Gold Poker Game, who is one of five runners in the race trained by Candice Bass-Robinson, have a score to settle and could pose the biggest threat to Happy Chance.
They are closely matched on form but the latter appeals as the most likely danger having already won at this level - when victorious in the 2000m Listed Jamaica Handicap during the summer.
Kwinta’s Light was only narrowly beaten last time but 1400m seems to be about as far as she will go and Justin Snaith’s charge could battle over the additional 200m.
The Grade 3 World Sports Betting Legal Eagle Stakes over 1800m looks to be at the mercy of the Snaith quartet but which one will win is the question.
Most pundits will stick with a Richard Fourie mount, which in this case is Rockpool, but the value could lie with Itsrainingwilliam with JP van der Merwe up.
The jockey arrangements might be questioned by Van der Merwe is in good form at the moment and with just 54.5kg to carry, this son of William Longsword should be competitive. He does have his first try at 1800m but he looks to be needing this sort of trip.
Hoedspruit was runner-up in his last two starts, including a second place behind stablemate Without Question in the first leg and could repeat that sort of performance in Leg 2.
Rockpool was touted as being the biggest challenger to Charles Dickens in the Cape Derby but this son Futura, although not disgraced in finishing fifth behind See It Again, made no impression from a wide draw in that 2000m Grade 1 and was subsequently gelded.
He returns after 12 weeks off open to any amount of improvement and could be headed to KwaZulu-Natal and the Hollywoodbets Durban July should he make a winning reappearance.
Van der Merwe has made the most of the opportunities provided by Snaith and the combination's good run of form is set to continue with Royal Watch in Race 10 over 1800m.
Snaith is again strongly represented with three runners in the race including Fourie's mount Night Ruler in Swinger and Exacta could pay handsome dividends.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 8 Harajuku, 3 Coastal Commander, 1 Captain Arrow, 5 Zil Moris
Race 2: 11 Oni San, 8 Lip Sync, 1 Lady Look Alike, 4 Tres Chic
Race 3: 9 William West, 10 Cafe Culture, 6 Questioning, 1 Future Gem
Race 4: 7 Apple Catcher, 12 Look Forward, 2 Simply Beautiful, 3 On Board
Race 5: 5 Final Edition, 4 Green Mandarin, 10 Gimme The Best, 6 Marshall Field
Race 6: 1 Go Like Flo, 9 Fallo Ancora, 7 Goddex Aphaea, 5 Blind Faith
Race 7: 7 Happy Chance, 5 Love Is A Rose, 10 Gold Poker Game, 9 Kwinta's Light
Race 8: 4 Itsrainingwilliam, 10 Hoedspruit, 9 Rockpool, 5 Gem King
Race 9: 6 Dance Variety, 3 Night Tiger, 10 Lunch Money, 4 Kimball O'Hara
Race 10: 1 Royal Watch, 4 Night Ruler, 6 Promettere, 7 Montien
BEST BET
Race 7 No 7 Happy Chance
VALUE BET
Race 8 No 4 Itsrainingwilliam
BEST SWINGER
Race 3 9x10
BIPOT
R144
Leg 1: 1, 4, 8, 11
Leg 2: 9
Leg 3: 2, 7, 12
Leg 4: 4, 5, 6, 10
Leg 5: 1, 7, 9
Leg 6: 7
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R162
Leg 1: 9
Leg 2: 7, 12
Leg 3: 4, 5, 10
Leg 4: 1, 7, 9
Leg 5: 7
Leg 6: 4, 9, 10
Leg 7: 3, 6, 10
PICK 6
R1536
Leg 1: 2, 3, 7, 12
Leg 2: 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10
Leg 3: 1, 5, 7, 9
Leg 4: 7
Leg 5: 4, 5, 9, 10
Leg 6: 3, 4, 6, 10
JACKPOT 1
R96
Leg 1: 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10
Leg 2: 1, 5, 7, 9
Leg 3: 7
Leg 4: 4, 5, 9, 10
JACKPOT 2
R80
Leg 1: 1, 5, 7, 9
Leg 2: 7
Leg 3: 4, 5, 9, 10
Leg 4: 3, 4, 6, 10