SHARON KOTZEN
Jack Milner: The lengthy period in which the turf track at Fairview was unavailable, means the recent form of some horses is permeated with races on the Polytrack.
As a result, it is difficult to assess how some runners will adapt to racing on the turf.
That particularly applies to Fly My Flag who lines up on Monday in Race 5, a MR 93 Handicap over 1400m. The Sharon Kotzen-trained filly has only raced five times for three wins and a third place.
Her only run on turf came on debut and that was not particularly encouraging. It is worth noting, though, that race was the Listed East Cape Nursery over 1200m on 5 June, and she was sent off at 50-1.
A closer analysis of the run indicates it was not as bad as the 11.25-length defeat indicates. Firstly, the race was won by Global Drummer, who has now triumphed in six of his seven starts and secondly, Fly My Flag finished just 4.25 lengths behind fourth-placed Byridge, who went off favourite for the race.
When Fly My Flag next came out, in a Maiden Plate open to both colts and fillies over 1200m on the Polytrack in August, she was backed from 11-2 into 12-10, and although reported to have been “nervous”, she raced away from the opposition to win by 8.25 lengths.
On that basis, and despite racing on the turf and against the colts again, Fly My Flag – a full sister to eight-time winner Kangaroo Jack – looks a good bet to win this race. Luyolo Mxothwa, who has ridden her to two of her three wins, is back on board.
If you look beyond her there is no shortage of challengers, headed up by Beethoven, who has performed well on the turf.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 12 Que Cosas, 1 Just So Easy, 3 Al’s Lass, 2 Isn’T It Bliss
Race 2: 9 Full Score, 2 Captain Calico, 5 Amazing Tune, 14 Stepitupbaby
Race 3: 11 Wings Of Fire, 1 Modakhar, 2 Little Drummer Boy, 4 Go Daddy
Race 4: 11 Shine A Light, 7 Alaskan Fate, 5 Elusive Jaid, 1 Granadilla
Race 5: 2 Fly My Flag, 5 Beethoven, 3 Meraki, 7 Bockscar
Race 6: 1 Thomas Tucker, 6 Exion, 14 Maldives, 9 Capernaum
Race 7: 2 Sugar Gum, 7 Delicasea, 8 Victoria Tower, 3 Ambra
Race 8: 6 Chainsaw, 3 Hey Boy, 7 Love Potion, 11 Rock The Cot
BEST BET
Race 5 No 2 Fly My Flag
VALUE BET
Race 7 No 2 Sugar Gum
BEST SWINGER
Race 3 1×11
BIPOT
R72
Leg 1: 12
Leg 2: 2, 5, 9
Leg 3: 1, 11
Leg 4: 1, 5, 7, 11
Leg 5: 2
Leg 6: 1, 6, 14
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R216
Leg 1: 2, 5, 9
Leg 2: 1, 11
Leg 3: 5, 7, 11
Leg 4: 2
Leg 5: 1, 6
Leg 6: 2, 7, 8
Leg 7: 3, 6
PICK 6
R1500
Leg 1: 1, 2, 11
Leg 2: 1, 2, 5, 7, 11
Leg 3: 2
Leg 4: 1, 2, 6, 9, 14
Leg 5: 1, 2, 3, 7, 8
Leg 6: 3, 6, 7, 11
JACKPOT
R125
Leg 1: 1, 2, 5, 7, 11
Leg 2: 2
Leg 3: 1, 2, 6, 9, 14
Leg 4: 1, 2, 3, 7, 8
JACKPOT 2
R100
Leg 1: 2
Leg 2: 1, 2, 6, 9, 14
Leg 3: 1, 2, 3, 7, 8
Leg 4: 3, 6, 7, 11