Jack Milner
Catching the Quartet on the Mercury Sprint over 1200m at Hollywoodbets Greyville is sure to be one of the highlights on Saturday’s card.
Why?
Because there is a R500,000 carryover kicking it off and with the pool likely to reach R3 million, get it right and it is going to be a profitable payday.
This race might be run at weight-for-age terms, but it is notorious for having outsiders in the first four. This year two fillies are weighted to fight it out in Captain’s Ransom and Big Burn, but it is surprising to see the former as the race favourite.
She did win the Grade 1 SA Fillies Sprint over 1200m at Scottsville but that came after a lengthy layoff so she was fresh. But as brilliant as she may be, her two worst races were at Greyville, 1200m is possibly too short and one needs to be wary of taking odds of 22-10 about her.
There is so much better value from Big Burn who is trading at 12-1. She might have finished behind Captain’s Ransom at Scottsville, but she is a much better performer around the turn and unlike the Justin Snaith-trained filly, she has proven herself against the colts when second in the Grade 1 Computaform Sprint at Turffontein, where she found the 1000m a touch sharp.
But with Warren Kennedy up and a good No 2 draw, she looks excellent value.
Big Burn was beaten by stable companion Master Archie on that occasion and Paul Peter’s charge could be a threat once again.
He was disappointing in the Durban Dash over 1100m at this course when he got too far back but that was his first race around the turn and he will have learned from that experience.
Master Archie can be a tricky ride but he has built up an excellent rapport with Gavin Lerena who has ridden him six times for four wins and a second.
He is drawn No 8 which is decent enough and he will be charging at them in the closing stages.
Alesian Chief won the Grade 1 Golden Horse Sprint at Scottsville in a faster time than Captain’s Ransom although he did carry 1.5kg less.
In this race he has to give the filly 2.5kg so that puts them very close on times. However, this is a different racecourse and it will be interesting to see which of the two adapts better. Muzi Yeni was aboard Corrie Lensley’s runner at Scottsville and has a decent record on the three-year-old colt, having ridden him eight time for four wins and three seconds.
As far as the Quartet is concerned it could be advisable to couple two floating bankers with the field as many others have place chances in this line-up.
There are also two Grade 1 races for juveniles in the Thekwini Stakes for fillies and the Premiers Champion Stakes, both over 1600m.
In the fillies’ race Sean Tarry could provide punters with a Pick 6 banker at a good price with Time Fo Orchids. This daughter of Time Thief could not have been more impressive when running on strongly off a wide draw to finish a one-length second in the Grade 2 Golden Slipper over 1400m.
She is drawn No 3 this time and looks sure to benefit from the extra 200m. With Keagan de Melo back up, she is going to take a power of beating.
The Champion Stakes looks more competitive and there are many with chances. Muzi Yeni rates Quantum Theory very highly but even he was taken aback by the quality of his last win at Turffontein.
From No 1 draw he could have the run of the race and is the frontrunner for top honours.