Ed Marnane has prepared a race-by-race guide to Saturday’s Dubai World Cup meeting at Meydan Racecourse.
Dubai Kahayla Classic
In a strong renewal for the Arabian showpiece, the Saudi champion Asfan Al Khalediah stands out and will take plenty of stopping. He extended his unbeaten record to 15 when winning the Obaiyah Arabian Classic on the Saudi Cup undercard last month. The five-year-old, hailed as one of the best Arabians to race in the Middle East, is hard to oppose. Tilal Al Khalediah, trained in Saudi Arabia, is a smart Arabian and can boast winning form at Group 1 level, both on turf and dirt. Winner of nine of his ten races, he has the benefit of a good draw and is for the shortlist. Barakka, narrowly beaten in last year’s renewal, arrives in good heart, winning the Al Maktoum Challenge at Meydan two months ago. It looks significant connections have kept him fresh for the race. He’s a lightly-race horse and is open to further improvement. Richard Mullen rides Rb Kingmaker and the five-year-old was an impressive winner of the HH The President Cup, Group 1, at Abu Dhabi. Now rated 123, the switch to dirt is a query having failed to win in two previous starts on the surface. He’s vulnerable in this company with doubts about his effectiveness on dirt. First Class, the beaten favourite when third last year, represents Doug Watson. He has been struggling to recapture his best form this season and is hard to fancy.
Godolphin Mile
Last year’s impressive all-the-way winner Isolate heads the local challenge and holds sound claims of defending his crown for Doug Watson, who has won the race three times. Isolate was a respectable sixth behind Senor Buscador in the Saudi Cup, leaving the impression he will be suited stepping back to a mile today. Saudi Crown, who was seven-and-quarter lengths ahead of Isolate at Riyadh, last month, is a smart colt and can boast Grade 1 success in the US, winning the Pennsylvania Derby. A confirmed front-runner with plenty of early pace, he is the horse to beat and will take plenty of stopping, provided he has recovered from his grueling race in the Saudi Cup. Of the others, Desert Wisdom, a Group 3 winner over the course and distance, could reward each-way backers at massive odds. He offered some encouragement on his latest run when fifth behind Military Law, having reared leaving the stalls and lost valuable ground at the start. Desert Wisdom, who ran second to Bathrat Leon in the 2022 Godolphin Mile, is nicely drawn and is back over his optimum distance.
Dubai Gold Cup
A wide-open renewal and has attracted many of the top international stayers, including the Aidan O’Brien-trained Tower Of London, recent winner of the Red Sea Turf Handicap on the Saudi Cup undercard. He had to overcome trouble in running when getting up close home to deny Enemy and Giavellotto in a close finish. The runner-up and third, joined by Nayyir (fourth), all renew rivalry and of the trio Giavellotto is weighted to reverse the form. The Marco Botti-trained stayer, winner of the Yorkshire Cup ten months ago, put up a bold show in Riyadh under his big weight. Godolphin has surprisingly a modest record in the race in recent years and their last victory was Cross Counter in 2019. They hold a strong hand with their three-pronged challenge and the John Gosden-trained Trawlerman makes most appeal of the trio. The five-year-old, the highest rated runner in the field, off a mark of 118, ended 2023 in style, racking off a hat-trick of wins, including the British Champions Long Distance Cup. Siskany, trained by Charlie Appleby, is unbeaten at Meydan this year and is one to consider, as he looks to avenge his narrow defeat in last year’s renewal. Roger Varian’s classy stayer Elder Eldarov, winner of the Irish St Leger last September, shouldn’t be far away, despite being off the track 202 days. Coltrane, a smart stayer for Andrew Balding, is worthy of a mention and will be ridden by Oisin Murphy. He’s a nicely drawn and should navigate a ground-saving trip breaking from stall four, a plus with a full of 16 declared.
Al Quoz Sprint
Franke Dettori is an eye-catching booking for Star Mystery, a filly that has thrived this year in the Emirates, winning the Al Wasl and defeating her elders in the Blue Point Stakes. She’s expected to be in the mix for Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby. Hong Kong sprinters demand respect on their international forays and California Spangle, trained by Tony Cruz, arrives in the Middle East in top form and is fancied to put up a bold show. A confirmed front-runner, he could be hard to catch. The admirable Casa Creed, trained by Bill Mott, was a good third in the Breeders’ Cup Mile and won’t be hindered stepping back to 1200m, and should be coming home well. Danyah, last year’s shock winner, has run well in defeat in two appearances this season, the latest when third in the Al Fahidi Fort under a penalty. He comes here a fresh horse and it would be no surprise if he landed back-to-back renewals. Frost At Dawn has blossomed since connections sent her sprinting, defeating Star Of Mystery in the Nad Al Sheba Sprint in a new track record. She was aided by a tailwind that day and could be flattered by the result.
UAE Derby
The unbeaten Forever Young is a worthy favourite and looks to follow up his recent win in the Saudi Derby, and continue Japan’s terrific record in the race. Trained by the flamboyant Yoshito Yahagi, who has enjoyed plenty of success on the world stage, Forever Young had to battle hard to prevail in a photo-finish in Riyadh, getting up in the final strides to deny Book’Em Danno, the pair pulling well clear of their ten rivals. It’s a concern he was sluggish leaving the gates and in the early stages never travelled, but he found plenty for pressure and hit the line strongly. The Aidan O’Brien-trained pair Navy Seal and Henry Adams, the choice of Ryan Moore, make little appeal on their dirt debuts. The former was soundly beaten in a minor event at Dundalk recently, while Henry Adams has to defy a lengthy break. Pandagate, the sole US raider, is a lightly raced colt who has won two of his three starts, all on dirt. By Arrogate, the 2017 Dubai World Cup winner, he stays well and merits respect. An inside draw has boosted the chances of Killer Collect and Mendelssohn Bay. The Bhupat Seemar-trained pair are proven under the conditions and have to be respected, while their stable companion, Guns And Glory, wide-margin winner of the trial, can’t be discounted. He’s unexposed and could be more to come from the son of Gun Runner.
Golden Shaheen
American sprinters have good record in recent years, winning six of the last eight renewals and typically hold a strong hand this year as they seek to maintain their dominance. Sibelius, last year’s winner, is back looking to become the first horse since Mind Your Biscuits to win back-to-back renewals. He has won his last two races and should go well under Ryan Moore, who delivered the six-year-old fast and late to nail Switzerland close home 12 months ago. Bob Baffert, who sent out Magic Circle to win the 2015 renewal, runs Hopkins. In the most competitive race on the card, he should go well as he looks to improve on his close fourth 12 months ago. It’s hard to leave Bold Journey out of calculations, having made late headway to finish a creditable third behind Remake in the Riyadh Sprint. He has the services of Frankie Dettori. Run Classic, winner of the Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes (Listed) off a lengthy break, has a bit to find on the ratings. He will need to take a jump forward facing the stiffest task of his career. Nakatomi, the final US runner, has to improve to reverse form with Sibelius on their recent clash in the Pelican Stakes and is worse off at the weights. Japan has yet to win the Golden Shaheen, one of the few major prizes in Dubai that has eluded them. Their main hopes rest with Remake, last year’s fifth and recent winner of the Riyadh Dirt Sprint. He can get behind in races but finds plenty for pressure and no surprise if he was coming home powerfully in the closing stages. Tuz, the pick of the local sprinters, ahead of Mouheeb, flopped dismally in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint. He never threatened and could only beat one home. He should enjoy being back at Meydan, a venue he has won three times.
Dubai Turf
Lord North, seeking a fourth successive win, made a pleasing comeback in the Winter Derby last month and that should leave him spot-on for this assignment as he is reunited with his regular pilot, Frankie Dettori. Nashwa, Lord North’s stable companion, is a three-time winner at Group 1 level and her effort when splitting Mostahdaf and Paddington at York is top-class form. Fillies have a good record in the race, and she should thereabouts in an open race. Japan has an impressive record in the race and Do Deuce spearheads their four-pronged assault. Not seen since winning the Arima Kinen in December, he is a high-class performer and can boast a lofty rating of 124, the highest of the 16 runners. The progressive Measured Time, trained by Charlie Appleby, has improved and has yet to taste defeat at Meydan, winning the Al Rashidiya and Jebel Hatta, his first success at Group 1 level and a key local prep. He holds leading claims. Voyage Bubble, one of two runners representing Hong Kong, gave local champion and Cox Plate hero Romantic Warrior a fright in the Hong Kong Gold Cup last month. He’s on an upward curve and not one to be overlooked.
Sheema Classic
Arguably the highlight of the card, in which dual Derby winner, Irish Champion and Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Auguste Rodin and Japanese star Liberty Island clash, with preference for the latter. She’s a high-class filly and enjoyed a successful campaign last year, sweeping the Japan Fillies’ Triple Crown. She rounded off the season in the Japan Cup and finished a creditable second behind the Japanese champion Equinox. Auguste Rodin, representing Coolmore, is a top-class colt on his day but it’s a concern he twice bombed out last year, showing nothing in the 2000 Guineas and the King George, two performances that left connections puzzled. Off nearly five months, he can be opposed at short prices in what is his toughest task to date. Emily Upjohn, from a yard that has won the race twice in the last seven years, is a smart filly and can’t be left out of calculations. She has an excellent record fresh and will be suited by the quick ground. Rebel’s Romance, the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner, has returned to form, winning Wild Flower at Kempton before impressing in the Amir Trophy, in Qatar, last month. He’s biggest asset is his turn of foot and could give Charlie Appleby a third win.
Dubai World Cup
Japan’s Ushba Tesoro, last year’s winner, ran well in the Saudi Cup and is the horse to beat in a wide-open race. The seven-year-old will be suited by going up in trip and the expected strong pace, as he’s a strong stayer and I expect will be doing his best work at the finish. Twelve months ago, he surged from the back of the field to win the Dubai World Cup and become only the second Japanese winner in the history of the race. Derma Sotogake, 1-1 at Meydan, impressed winning the UAE Derby 12 months ago. He wasn’t beaten far in the Saudi Cup, off a 112-day break, when fifth, beaten less than three lengths. He’s entitled to be sharper for that run and should go close. Kabirkhan, trained by Doug Watson who began his career in Kazakhstan, is unbeaten at Meydan and hard not to be impressed the manner of his two victories, the latest in the Al Maktoum Challenge, Group 1, since joining Red Stables in Dubai. This represents a significant jump in class for the progressive colt, who is seeking to emulate his sire, California Chrome who won the 2016 Dubai World Cup. Senor Buscador, representing US trainer Todd Fincher, was delivered fast and late to deny Ushba Tesoro in the Saudi Cup, having looked an unlikely winner turning form home. He will be ideally served by a strong tempo, and I fancy will coming home strongly in the closing stages, provided his tough race in Riyadh hasn’t left a mark. He is trying to become the first horse to pull of the Saudi Cup/Dubai World Cup double. Newgate aims to give US trainer Bob Baffert a fifth Dubai World Cup and arrives in the Middle East on an upward curve, winning the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. Frankie Dettori’s mount has to be respected.