TAB’s mystery tipster Harry Ihashi’s leg-by-leg analysis of the R1-million carryover Pick 6 at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth this Saturday:
Leg 1 (Race 4): WINCHESTER SPRINT CUP
#8 WE'RE JAMMING found only one too good when outrun from a handy position in the Grade 2 Cape Merchants over 1200m last time and has finished second in all three outings over this course and distance. The addition of blinkers for the first time should sharpen him, so it would be no surprise were he to score over this trip. #6 TROMPIE has 1.05 lengths to find on the former, but renews rivalry on 1.5kg better terms and could turn the tables. He is two from two over the track and trip. #9 ISIVUNGUVUNGU was an easy winner of the Listed Umgeni Handicap when last seen 23 weeks ago. He is loaded with ability and is likely to mount a serious challenge if not in need of the outing.
Leg 2 (Race 5): Grade 2 SCEPTRE STAKES
#9 GOLDEN HOSTESS has been drawn wide in her last two starts, the latest of which came in the Grade 1 Cape Fillies Guineas, and won't be inconvenienced by dropping in trip to 1200m. With a pace to aim at and a smart turn of foot in her arsenal, she should finish strongly and represents the value in the race. #13 PRINCESS CALLA outsprinted several re-opposing rivals when taking out the Grade 2 Southern Cross Stakes over 1000m last time and would've tightened up since that winning comeback. She is loaded with ability and with improved fitness on her side, is likely to make another bold winning bid over a distance more to her liking. #2 CIAO BELLA finished second in the Cape Fillies Guineas having impressed when winning a 1400m Grade 2 at her previous start. She reverts to a stiff 1200m which should suit and merits healthy respect. #15 DESERT MIRACLE ran on from last when third in the Grade 3 Merchants on the Highveld at her last start. Globetrotting Christophe Soumillon will be in the irons and could coax a little extra out of Mike de Kock's charge, who shouldn't be discounted in a competitive race.
Leg 3 (Race 6): Grade 2 PREMIER TROPHY
#3 UNIVERSAL bounced right back to best when finishing second in the Grade 2 Green Point Stakes, staying on under pressure after racing in a handy position. He last tasted success over this course and distance, so is likely to go close in his peak outing. #1 RASCALLION has a bit to find on that form and on the revised weight terms, but has a good record over the track and trip and could pose the biggest threat.
Leg 4 (Race 7): Grade 1 PADDOCK STAKES
Horse-Of-The-Year #3 CAPTAIN'S RANSOM showed she was as good as ever when winning on her reappearance over 1400m, defeating a useful field of male rivals. She would have come on from the run and with improved fitness on her side should win this race for the second year running and register an impressive seventh Grade 1 success. #6 MARINA finished just 0.30 lengths behind her last year and was motoring late, so should also be included the Pick 6.
Leg 5 (Race 8): Grade 1 L'ORMARINS KING'S PLATE
Unbeaten #9 CHARLES DICKENS blew away his rivals in the Grade 1 Cape Guineas, quickening clear under the hands and from off the pace to win by more than four lengths. He faces his toughest test yet pitted against older Grade 1 winning rivals, but is a star in the making and has been so impressive he could well be up to the challenge, especially in receipt of weight from his elders.
Leg 6 (Race 9): MR74 Handicap
#10 NEVADA KING finished a creditable second over the course and distance last time in his first run out of the maidens. He stayed on nicely at the finish and in a similar contest should play a leading role with a repeat of that effort. Stable companion #11 FUTURE SWING ran in a stronger race last time and on riding arrangements appears the pick of the Snaith runners with Richard Fourie aboard. He is a progressive sort who should make his presence felt and must be included. #1 TIZONA has not been beaten far in recent outings and finished his race off well over 1400m last time out, suggesting the extra 200m should be to his liking. #2 BLACKBERRY MALT and #12 BILLY SPELLBOUND are others to consider.
Suggested R500 PICK 6:
Leg 1: 6, 8, 9, 11, 13
Leg 2: 2, 9, 13, 15, 17
Leg 3: 1, 3
Leg 4: 3, 6
Leg 5: 9
Leg 6: 1, 2, 10, 11, 12