FOREVER MINE
Jack Milner: Sometimes one needs to look beyond the best-handicapped runners to find a winner in a Plate race.
That looks to be the case in Race 6 at the Vaal on Thursday, a Progress Plate over 1200m on the straight course.
The reason is because there are two highly accomplished three-year-olds, both with excellent feature-race form, who look likely to upend the better weighted opposition.
MK’s Pride from Paul Peter’s stable was runner-up to stable companion Catch Twentytwo in two features, the World Sports Betting Dingaans (Grade 2) over 1600m and the Tony Ruffel Stakes (Grade 3) over 1400m in his last two appearances.
He is carded to take on Mike de Kock-trained Forever Mine, whose only defeat was by Grade 2 WSB Gauteng Guineas winner Malmoos from the same yard, in the Grade 3 Graham Beck Stakes over 1400m.
Both are likely be underdone as they prepare for bigger races during the season, but they should be good enough to win a race of this nature.
Despite this, they do meet a pretty decent field, with some of their opposition likely to be better suited to this distance. Warren Kennedy is back aboard MK’s Pride while Craig Zackey rides Forever Mine.
The best-weighted runner is Sean Tarry-trained Cavivar, who is at least 5kg better handicapped based on merit ratings, than her opposition. She is carded to carry just 51.5kg and that is further reduced by the 2.5kg claim of apprentice Joshwin Solomons. She has not raced for 91 days and is another who could be looking ahead to a feature-race run.
Tarry also saddles Tropic Sun, who is a strong front runner and could outpace the field if allowed to make a break for it. He has Lyle Hewitson in the irons.
De Kock also has another string to his bow in Al Muthana, who is the second-best handicapped runner. He looked a potential star when winning over 1160m on debut and maybe return to sprints is what he could be looking for.
Callan Murray rides the Australian-bred son of Deep Field.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 16 Fasinada, 1 Deanagelo, 3 Freezing Fast, 13 Wisden
Race 2: 1 Future Lady, 7 Bat Out Of Hell, 9 Lucy In The Sky, 3 Broadway Babe
Race 3: 1 Irish Willow, 3 Mirren, 4 Wedding Bliss, 2 Electric Boots
Race 4: 7 Orus Apollo, 1 Soldiers Song, 2 Fast Draw, 8 Parallax
Race 5: 7 Jamaheery, 5 May Queen, 11 Brooklyn Bridge, 14 Afternoon Tea
Race 6: 3 Forever Mine, 1 MK’s Pride, 5 Al Muthana, 4 Tropic Sun
Race 7: 4 Spanish Boy, 3 Rock Of Africa, 9 Written In Stone, 10 Sea Virescent
Race 8: 6 Louis The Seventh, 4 Dogliotti, 9 Leading Fast, 11 Ramsay
BEST BET
Race 3 No 1 Irish Willow
VALUE BET
Race 7 No 4 Spanish Boy
BEST SWINGER
Race 6 1×3
BIPOT
R320
Leg 1: 1, 3, 13, 16
Leg 2: 1, 7
Leg 3: 1
Leg 4: 1, 2, 7, 8
Leg 5: 3, 5, 7, 11, 14
Leg 6: 1, 3
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R288
Leg 1: 1
Leg 2: 1
Leg 3: 1, 2, 7
Leg 4: 5, 7, 11, 14
Leg 5: 1, 3
Leg 6: 3, 4, 9
Leg 7: 4, 6, 9, 11
PICK 6
R1600
Leg 1: 1
Leg 2: 1, 2, 7, 8
Leg 3: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11, 14
Leg 4: 1, 3
Leg 5: 3, 4, 9, 10, 11
Leg 6: 4, 6, 9, 11, 16
JACKPOT 1
R320
Leg 1: 1, 2, 7, 8
Leg 2: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11, 14
Leg 3: 1, 3
Leg 4: 3, 4, 9, 10, 11
JACKPOT 2
R400
Leg 1: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11, 14
Leg 2: 1, 3
Leg 3: 3, 4, 9, 10, 11
Leg 4: 4, 6, 9, 11, 16
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