TROPIC SUN
Jack Milner: Tropic Sun takes a jump up in class, but the manner of her last win indicates she will be hard to oppose in Race 7 at the Vaal on Thursday.
Sean Tarry’s charge contests a Graduation Plate for fillies and mares over 1200m.
The four-year-old daughter of Skit Skizzle has been lightly raced but when she does make an appearance on the turf, she leaves little doubt as to the level of her ability.
Her last run was also in a Graduation Plate over this course and distance and although there were some very average runners in that race who did lower the average merit rating somewhat, Tropic Sun managed to annihilate a decent enough field that included some colts.
She hopped to the front early on and nobody managed to get a blow in as Tropic Sun eased away from her opposition to beat Virtuosa by 6.25 lengths.
She only received a 2.5kg penalty for that win but that is of little consequence in a plate race because, as a two-time winner, she has been allocated joint top weight of 60kg.
Lyle Hewitson rode her last time and he is back in the irons once again.
Tropic Sun is not the best handicapped runner. In fact, that role belongs – quite appreciably – to Stephen Moffatt-trained Rio’s Winter. She is at least 5.5kg better weighted than any of her opposition and is 6.5kg better off with Tropic Sun.
The problem, however, is that 8.5kg of her merit rating is based on a 0.25-length second behind Summer Pudding in the Grade 2 Gauteng Fillies Guineas over 1600m last February. She went on to finish fourth behind the same filly in the Grade 1 SA Classic over 1800m.
There is little to enthuse about her last two races in which she finished 11.50 lengths behind Celtic Sea in a Pinnacle Stakes over this course and distance in June and then made a comeback in the Grade 2 Ipi Tombe Challenge over 1600m at Turffontein last month where she finishing eighth in the nine-horse field, beaten 7.25 lengths by War Of Athena.
This race is likely to be too short and Rio’s Winter will need to improve to justify her rating in this line-up.
Greens looks the main threat. She ran a one-length fourth behind Sweet Sensation in the Sophomore 1000 (Non-Black Type) over 1000m at this course last time and there was a lot to like about the way she ran on.
Paul Peter’s charge settled well and went on to produce the fastest 400m to finish, so perhaps Greens is looking for a little further these days.
Jack Milner’s selections
Race 1: 2 Captain’s Run, 5 Heavens Girl, 9 Veneta, 8 On Cue
Race 2: 3 Irfaans Boy, 9 Arctic Skyline, 8 Starrywinternight, 10 Bella Chica
Race 3: 11 Parallax, 6 Genie, 15 Victor Lazlo, 4 Grazinginthegrass
Race 4: 5 Castle Corner, 10 Pamushana’s Pride, 11 White Fang, 6 Mister Blue Sky
Race 5: 7 Ideal Jet, 4 Bold Fortune, 1 Ideal Angel, 3 Smiley River
Race 6: 1 Rapid Fire, 2 Raeesah, 7 The Villa Grand, 4 Nina Amelia
Race 7: 2 Tropic Sun, 1 Greens, 8 Paton’s Tears, 3 Southern Charm
Race 8: 6 Midnight Caller, 5 Rise As One, 7 Forever Light, 13 Swiss Bank
BEST BET
Race 4 No 5 Castle Corner
VALUE BET
Race 8 No 6 Midnight Caller
BEST SWINGER
Race 1 2×5
BIPOT
R288
Leg 1: 2, 5
Leg 2: 3, 8, 9, 10
Leg 3: 6, 11, 15
Leg 4: 5
Leg 5: 1, 3, 4, 7
Leg 6: 1, 2, 7
PLACE ACCUMULATOR
R324
Leg 1: 3, 8, 9
Leg 2: 6, 11, 15
Leg 3: 5
Leg 4: 1, 4, 7
Leg 5: 1, 2
Leg 6: 1, 2
Leg 7: 5, 6, 7
PICK 6
R1200
Leg 1: 4, 6, 11, 15, 16
Leg 2: 5
Leg 3: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7
Leg 4: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7
Leg 5: 1, 2, 3, 8
Leg 6: 5, 6, 7, 13
JACKPOT 1
R100
Leg 1: 5
Leg 2: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7
Leg 3: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7
Leg 4: 1, 2, 3, 8
JACKPOT 2
R400
Leg 1: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7
Leg 2: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7
Leg 3: 1, 2, 3, 8
Leg 4: 5, 6, 7, 13