Ed Marnane
Twelve months ago Japanese-trained horses took Saudi Cup night by storm, winning four of the six Group races. They will return with a squad of 20 horses on the world’s richest card at King Abdulaziz racetrack on Saturday.
This meeting will also be the first World Pool day.
The HKJC will host six World Pool races on the day, Race 3 to 8. The US$20-million (R365,934,000) Saudi Cup is the world’s richest race. On those six specific races, the World Pool bet-types are Win, Place, Exacta, Quinella (first and second any order) and Swinger (7 or more runners).
Japan will be seeking their first victory in the Saudi Cup and are responsible for six of the 13 runners.
On official ratings, Panthalassa, rated 120, looks to have the strongest claims for Yoshitto Yahagi, a trainer who has enjoyed success on the world stage, winning major prizes in Hong Kong, Dubai, Australia and at the Breeders’ Cup.
The son of top Japanese sprint Lord Kanaloa demonstrated he can perform overseas when dead-heating with a Lord North in a thrilling finish to the Dubai Turf at Meydan 11 months ago. Panthalassa is ideally berthed in stall one for horse that likes to make the running.
It is an obvious concern Panthalassa disappointed on his only previous race on dirt in Japan back in 2020, finishing well down the field. However, connections are hopeful the six-year-old will adapt to the dirt surface at King Abdulaziz and going left-handed will suit. If he brings his front-running tactics to Riyadh and can dominate, he should put up a bold show.
Bob Baffert is no stranger to success in the Middle East, winning the Dubai World Cup four times, and the Saudi Derby 12 months ago. He saddles Taiba, a three-time Grade 1 winner, and Country Grammar, the mount of Frankie Dettori who has been in brilliant form at Santa Anita this winter.
Taiba is the worthy favourite and looks the horse to beat. He’s a top-class horse on dirt and comes on the back of a comfortable win under veteran US ride Mike Smith at Santa Anita at Christmas.
The draw (No 2) has been kind and Taiba should be a major player.
A case can be made for Country Grammar, winner of the Dubai World Cup last year after chasing home shock winner Emblem Road in the Saudi Cup 12 months ago. Frankie Dettori is unbeaten on the six-year-old and the Italian steered him to victory in the San Antonio Stakes (Grade 2) two months ago.
A tough, consistent, and strong stayer, he is proven under the conditions, and won’t be far away.
It would be foolish to rule out Emblem Road, the major local hope. He caused one of the biggest shocks in racing when swooping fast and late to win last year’s renewal, the first local trained winner since the Saudi Cup was established in 2019.
He bounced back to form after showing little in Group 3 company in France, a performance that can be forgiven running on turf. He impressed when wining his prep, a minor event over the course, leaving the impression he was back to his best.
Scotland Yard, formerly trained by Steve Asmussen, has blossomed since being bought to race in Saudi Arabia, winning all three starts. He’s very progressive, proven on the track and merits consideration at big odds.
Songline returns to defend her crown in the 1351 Turf Sprint and looks the best chance of getting Japan on the scoreboard early. Trained by Yoshitto Yahagi, she enjoyed the strong pace to swoop fast and late when beating Casa Creed and Happy Romance in a thrilling finish last year.
Since returning home, she has won the Yasuda Kinen (Group 1) and favourable drawn in stall two here, she can win back-to-back renewals under regular rider Christophe Lemaire.
Missed The Cut, regarded by many as the banker on the card, faces 10 rivals in the Neom Cup Turf on his first start since defeating Algiers in the Churchill Stakes at Lingfield in November, rounding off a highly successful season for the well-bred son of Elusive Quality. Winner of four of his six races, George Boughey’s stable star doesn’t represent value and Mostahdaf can take the prize for Shadwell.
He is a talented five-year-old and is the highest rated horse in the field. However, he has disappointed on occasions but if bringing his A-Game to the Middle East, he should be thereabouts.
Baffert won the Saudi Derby with Pinehurst 12 months ago and can win the 1600m race on dirt again with the classy three-year-old Havnameltdown, winner of four of his five races and the only US trained colt in the field.
He’s the class act of the race and will be suited by the one-turn mile. The son of Uncaptured is a quick horse and drawn in stall six, he should prove too strong for his 12 rivals under Frankie Dettori.
Race 5, the Red Sea Turf Handicap, billed the Melbourne Cup of the Northern Hemisphere, sees Subjectivist makes his long-awaited comeback after a lengthy spell on the sidelines with a tendon injury.
The son of Teofilo, the outstanding stayer of 2021, winner of the Ascot and Dubai Gold Cups, faces a stiff task under top weight returning from a 618-day absence from the widest draw in stall No 13.
Trawlerman, the mount of Frankie Dettori, was a progressive stayer last year and the Italian gave the Godolphin-owned gelding an inspired ride when winning the Ebor at York. He has his quirks but if the right mood, he ought to run well.
Echt, one of two Japanese runners, can boast Grade 3 winning form. He’s unproven over the 3000m but if seeing out the marathon trip, he has the required ability to play a leading role and is getting weight from most of his rivals.
In an open race, Andrew Balding’s Nate The Great gets the vote to deliver another big prize in the Middle East for Oisin Murphy, seven days after the Irish born rider steered Flaming Rib to victory in the valuable Dukhan Sprint in Qatar.
Murphy recently returned to saddle having served a 14-month ban handed down by the BHA.
Best Bet: 12 Havnameltdown [Race 6]
Best Value: 6 Meraas [Race 7]
Best Swinger: 11 Songline and 2 Casa Creed [Race 4]
JACKPOT
[Races 5-8]
R64
Leg 1: 2, 7, 10, 11
Leg 2: 12
Leg 3: 1, 2, 4, 6
Leg 4: 2, 4, 7, 10